EUR/GBP Could Drop To .8800
One of the biggest stories this past week was European Central Bank President Mario Draghi’s post monetary policy meeting comments. They sent the euro tumbling against the U.S. dollar because Draghi was not nearly as optimistic as the changes in the policy statement suggests. The central bank head emphasized the need for policy accommodation, the […]
Understanding How Trade Deficits Arise
Given that trade and tariffs are so much in the news, I explain how trade imbalances arise, and therefore why tariffs make no sense. Video Length: 00:04:47 Economists who broadly understand that trade deficits accompany budget deficits express it in terms of national accounts, in this equation. (Imports – Exports) = (Investment – Savings) + […]
Mutual Fund Whale Goes “All In” On Junk Bonds
A mutual fund whale likes to time the junk bond market. The whale is back to “all in” via ETFs. Bloomberg reports A Mutual Fund Whale Makes Big Bets on Junk Bonds—Using ETFs. In early February, most of the investing world was watching stocks take a tumble. Matt Pasts, the manager of BTS Tactical Fixed Income […]
The Latest Look At The Total Return Roller Coaster – Friday, March 9
Note: We’ve updated the charts below based on monthly data through February. Here’s an interesting set of charts that will especially resonate with those of us who follow economic and market cycles. Imagine that five years ago you invested $10,000 in the S&P 500. How much would it be worth today, with dividends reinvested but adjusted […]
The Tortoise Economy Vs. The Hare Market
Happy Bull Market Birthday! Today is the ninth birthday of this equity bull market, a rather impressive run that has generated roughly 5x in returns within an economy that has grown at a yawn-inducing pace. As the third longest bull market in history, this is an impressive day in an otherwise unimpressive week in the […]
Inflation, Deflation, And Bond Market Returns
Inflation. Deflation. Two words often heard in conversations about the bond market. Why? Because bond investors tend to demand higher yields in periods of higher inflation and lower yields in periods of lower inflation or deflation. Looking at a long-term chart of yields and inflation, the relationship is clear. Data Source: Federal Reserve Economic Data […]
E Stock Of The Week: Cognizant Technology
A few days ago there were 4 very negative headlines. Today, all is well with the world. Stock of the week: Cognizant Technology has been in our portfolio over 15 years. Wait until you see these numbers. Video Length: 00:09:12
A Stock Market Crash Is The Least Of Our Worries If Trump Starts A World War
Cannons, Tariffs, and a World War Trigger Stock Market Crash “Buy on the sound of cannons, sell on the sound of trumpets.” The famous motto going back to 1810 is attributed to Nathan Rothschild, of the famed Rothschild banking family. The implication is that wars don’t cause a stock market crash. Rather, they favor investment. […]
Why Trump’s New Tariffs Are An Ominous Omen
Donald Trump surprised even his own advisors with his decision to impose tariffs on imported steel and aluminum “for a long period of time.” To be more accurate, as the professor Don Boudreaux puts it, “tariffs imposed by Uncle Sam are not imposed on imported steel, aluminum, or anything else. These tariffs are imposed on Americans who buy […]
The Simple Technical Indicator For Crypto
When crypto volatility is high (like it is now), buying coins can be intimidating. How can the average person hope to time it right? If you blindly guess, you may buy a cryptocurrency only to watch it drop 25% over the next week. That’s why I use technical analysis (TA) to help time buys. It […]
