Trump And Tariffs – Not A New Risk
Last week, the stock market dove in part because President Trump appeared to be plunging ahead with new tariffs; on Monday, the market recouped that loss (and then some) as the conventional wisdom over the weekend was that Congress would never let that happen and so it is unlikely that tariffs will be implemented. I’m always fascinated […]
WTI Down, RBOB Up After Huge Gasoline Draw, Crude Build
WTI/RBOB prices chopped around today, but drifted lower into the API data which shocked both ways. A larger than expected crude build sparked WTI selling and the biggest gasoline draw since October sparked RBOB gains. API Crude +5.66mm (+3mm exp) Cushing -790k exp Gasoline -4.536mm – biggest draw since Oct 2017 Distillates +1.487mm Prices limped lower into […]
Tug Of War
From the March 4, 2018 HRA Journal: Issue 283 The markets have calmed down a bit but the White House is injecting plenty of political uncertainty. I’m surprised Wall St is taking things as well as it is. Seems like traders think tax cuts (excuse the pun) trump everything else. We’ll see. The complacency didn’t […]
Market Cap To GDP — An Updated Look At The Buffett Valuation Indicator
Note: This update incorporates the latest monthly close and the GDP Q4 Second Estimate data. Market Cap to GDP is a long-term valuation indicator that has become popular in recent years, thanks to Warren Buffett. Back in 2001, he remarked in a Fortune Magazine interview that “it is probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at […]
A Classic Bull Market With Skeletons In The Closet
From the private collection of Arnold Lieberman-Art Dealer, Santa Fe, NM This week, I am coming to you from a little town in Mexico called La Penita. The market is coming to you from hints by North Korea that they are willing to discuss a nuclear arms agreement. But that’s not all. The market also […]
Market Talk – Tuesday, March 6
Asia was very happy to see the US markets rally yesterday and responded with a strong performance themselves. News that the fear of trade wars may have faded helped sentiment and confidence. The Nikkei and the Hang Seng both added 2% which also pushed the Yen back out to the mid 106’s. This currency move […]
What About JPY?
The narrative for global growth, synchronized or not, doesn’t do well with JPY on the rise. Referred to as a safe haven, there should be no reason for an exchange value at a level not seen since late 2016. It flies in the face of the falling dollar, though in the case of yen, backwards […]
NAFTA’s Role In The Tariff Discussion
Tariffs Dominate Headlines The tariffs on steel and aluminum have continued to dominate the headlines as the story hasn’t gone away as some expected. President Trump doesn’t appear to be backing down on his proposal even as House Speaker Paul Ryan, the Club for Growth, and the Heritage Foundation all have come out in opposition […]
What Are Indicators Saying About A Potential Recession?
from the St Louis Fed — this post authored by Michael McCracken Forecasting recessions is notoriously difficult. Even so, knowing that a recession may be imminent enables consumers and businesses to make better strategic decisions. For example, households may want to increase their savings in case they lose jobs, while companies may reduce investments to adjust […]
Is Another Opportunity On Forex Market Lurking Just Around The Corner?
The combination of several resistances turned out to be a too big challenge for the buyers at the end of the previous week, which resulted in a decline in the greenback on the following days. Does it mean that another profitable opportunity may be just around the corner? EUR/USD and Bullish Formation On Friday, […]
