What a true bond bear market looks like A couple of years ago I remember having a discussion with a hedge fund manager. I told him about my theory that the next big surprise would be higher bond rates, not the other way round. I distinctly remember him lecturing me about the overwhelming forces of […]

A major blow to the EU! The populist Five Star Movement won about one-third of the votes in the Italian general elections. It’s another negative shock for the European establishment. Will these stars shine on gold? Five Stars Movement Triumphs We live in strange times. To be a hairstylist, you need a license. But you […]

I write constantly (some would say incessantly and annoyingly) about entitlement spending. And I occasionally write about discretionary spending. It’s time to address the budget in a comprehensive fashion. Let’s look at five charts to put everything in context and to show how we got into our current mess. Our first chart (based on Table 8.2 from the Office of Management and Budget’s Historical […]

The U.S. dollar was seen making a comeback in the month of February as the once deemed to be weak currency was seen making signs of a temporary bottom. The sentiment in the U.S. dollar was lifted by a mix of broad fiscal and monetary policy signals. Although no major changes were seen in the month […]

Despite repeated denials from the pro-tariff wing of White House advisers (a triumvirate that includes Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross, trade adviser Peter Navarro and trade representative Robert Lighthizer), media reports about Gary Cohn’s impending departure from the White House have just kept coming. And for its latest installment in the ongoing “will Gary stay, or will Gary go” […]