Was There A Stock Market Bubble? Did It Burst?
It took longer than usual, but the priced-for-perfection bull run has taken a body blow in recent weeks. That’s good news for investors with relatively long time horizons since lower prices equate with higher expected returns. Meantime, with the benefit of hindsight, let’s consider how a pair of econometric tools have fared for monitoring bubble […]
The Impact Of Tariffs And Trade Wars On The US Economy And The Dollar
US President Donald Trump shocked global markets yesterday by announcing his intention to introduce a 25% tariff on imported steel and a 10% tariff on imported aluminum. The US Dollar was slammed across the board alongside US equity markets amid fears of trade wars emerging. It’s important for traders to understand the economic significance of […]
If You’re Long Risk Assets, You Do Not Want To Hear Kuroda Using The Word ‘Exit’
For two months now, the world has been eyeing the BoJ closely for signs they might be set to follow the Fed and the ECB down the road to policy normalization. To be sure, Japan is a long way from their inflation target, but as Albert Edwards wrote in January, the deflationary mindset seems to be […]
E How High Are Soybean Prices Going?
Soybean Futures Soybean futures in the May contract continue their bullish momentum trading higher for the 4th consecutive session after settling last Friday in Chicago at 10.47 a bushel while currently trading at 10.75 up nearly $0.30 for the trading week all due to the drought in the country of Argentina accelerating as there are […]
Trumped Up Tariffs
A potential trade war and Russian meddling, not in an election, but to try to influence U.S. energy policies are all the rage in financial markets today. U.S. stocks plummeted after President Donald Trump slowed the market with the timing of his announcement that he would impose a 25% tariff on steel imports and 10% […]
Similarities To 1929, 1987, 2000 & 2007 In Play Says Joe Friday
The 2-pack above looks at the Dow from two different time frames. 100-year look back on the left and 35-year look back on the right. As you can see the Dow is in a very strong and well defined rising bull trend! Nothing of late has changed that!!! The strong rally since the 2009 lows has the […]
How I Learned To Stop Worrying And Love The Vol
Following one of the most tranquil years in stock market history, volatility came roaring back in late January and early February. Many investors were calling for the inevitable return of volatility in 2018, ourselves included. That said, few foresaw how quickly and how violently that prediction would come to fruition. While there was some debate as to […]
U.K. Construction PMI Inches Higher In February
Business activity in the UK construction sector inched higher in February despite rising input cost. The construction Purchasing Managers’ Index climbed from January’s 4-month low of 50.2 to 51.4 in February, IHS Markit reported on Friday. This indicated a slight increase in construction activities during the month, but lower than the 2017 average of 52.3. […]
E Crude Oil Down $3 For Trading Week
Crude Oil Futures Crude oil futures in the April contract settled last Friday in New York at 63.55 a barrel while currently trading at 60.77 down nearly $3 for the trading week following the stock market lower as the volatility has reemerged in both sectors as crude oil has been mirroring the equity market over […]
Morning Call For Friday, March 2
OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS Mar E-mini S&Ps (ESH18 -0.45%) this morning are down -0.50% and European stocks are down -1.57% at a 2-week low. Stocks are falling on concern economic growth and global trade may suffer because of the planned U.S. tariffs on foreign metal imports. European Commission President Juncker said Europe will respond “firmly” to any new duties. An […]
