EC Technology Shares Priced For Perfection
Today’s Wall Street Journal shows that large-cap technology stocks are priced as if economic and earnings growth will continue for the significant future. However, this late in the cycle, the probability of a hiccup increases, making share prices vulnerable. The article focusing on tech shares makes for uncomfortable reading even if most of the tech names […]
Will Low Volatility Mean Lower Risk Next Time?
Well, it’s official. According to Ned Davis Research, this is now the longest period in history without the S&P 500 experiencing a correction of 3% or more. For those of you keeping score at home, NDR tells us that as of Monday’s close, it has now been 262 market days since the last time the […]
US Existing Home Sales Beat Expectations – USD Ignores
Sales of second-hand homes are on the up, hitting an annualized level of 5.48 million in October, better than 5.42 million expected and 5.37 million beforehand. The rise is accompanied by another interesting fact: the level of inventories is at its lowest since 1999 – yes before the previous crisis and also 18 years ago. […]
Relationship Between Crude Oil And Oil Stocks
Although verification of the last week breakdown under important resistance line pushed black gold under $56, oil bulls didn’t give up and triggered a pullback. What does it mean for light crude? Will the relationship between crude oil and oil stocks give us more clues about future moves? Crude Oil’s Technical Picture Before we try […]
World Markets Update – Tuesday, November 21
All eight indexes on our world watch list have posted gains for 2017 through November 20. The top performer thus far is Hong Kong’s Hang Seng with a gain of 33.0%, followed by India’s BSE SENSEX at 25.43%. In third is Tokyo’s Nikkei with 16.47%. The Last Four Weeks The tables below provide a concise […]
Could Hammond’s First Autumn Budget Be His Last?
The UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Hammond is set to deliver his first Autumn budget tomorrow, and it could be his last. The UK government is fragile. Infighting is notorious. It appears the hardline Brexit camp does not trust Hammond. A cabinet reshuffle is widely rumored, and Hammond seems vulnerable. Prime Minister May, who also initially was in […]
October 2017 CFNAI Super Index Moving Average Points To A Pickup In Growth
The economy’s rate of growth surged based on the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) 3 month moving (3MA) average – and economic growth is significantly above the historical trend rate of growth. Analyst Opinion of the CFNAI This Month The single month index which is not used for economic forecasting which unfortunately is what […]
Learning From The 1980’s
Forget about big hair, Ray-Bans, and Donkey Kong. Don’t even think about Live-Aid, Thriller, and E.T. Above all else, the 1980s were the gravy days of the money supply aggregates. Beginning in late 1979, the Fed built its policy approach around the aggregates—primarily M1 but occasionally M2, and policymakers also monitored M3 while experimenting with M1B […]
Is USA Inc. A “Sell”
What would happen if I recommended a stock that had no profits, was losing billions of dollars a year, and had a net worth of negative $44 trillion? Chances are, you would cancel your subscription to the Mad Hedge Fund Trader, demand a refund, unfriend me on Facebook, and unfollow me on Twitter. What if you did an […]
Technically Speaking: The Bull Won’t Die Easily
Just a short note for today as I am taking a quick vacation for the “Thanksgiving” holiday. As I noted this past weekend: “Thanksgiving week is traditionally an extremely ‘light’ trading period where the ‘inmates are running the asylum.’ With the market more overbought now than at any other period since 2011, a consolidation or further corrective action […]
