Shiller Is Wrong
Robert Shiller had an interesting interview on CNBC in which he took the concept of passive investing to the woodshed, calling indexers freeloaders (on other people’s work) and stopping just short of calling the strategy un-American. I found the clip via Cullen Roche who also had some thoughts on the Shiller segment. One of Cullen’s major points, that I […]
Gold Gains As Stocks Slide, Yield Curve Crashes, & Dollar Dumps
Economic Data continues to surprise to the upside (compared to what had been terrible expectations)…is this as good as it gets? But credit, the yield curve, and now stocks are not loving it… Small Caps were the only major index green today… The Dow and S&P 500- fell for the 2nd week in a row […]
November 2017: ECRI’s WLI Growth Index Rate Down
ECRI’s WLI Growth Index which forecasts economic growth six months forward remains in expansion. This is compared to RecessionAlerts similar weekly leading index. Analyst Opinion of the trends of the weekly leading indices Both ECRI’s and RecessionAlerts indicies are indicating modest growth six months from today. Current ECRI WLI Level and Growth Index: Here is […]
You Can’t Make This Up
Lots of well-meaning pundits are pounding the table on the fact that although the Federal Reserve is raising rates, financial conditions are easing, muting the rate rises effects. Well, these financial prognosticators might have good intentions, but the reality is that this is nothing new. I don’t deserve any credit for this next observation – […]
S&P 500 Quick-View Chart Book
Each weekend as part of our Bespoke Premium and Bespoke Premium research service, clients receive our S&P 500 Quick-View Chart Book, which includes one-year price charts of every stock in the S&P 500. You can literally scan through this report in a matter of minutes or hours, but either way, you will come out ahead knowing which stocks, or groups […]
Kansas City Fed Survey: Activity Slows In November
The Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey business conditions indicator measures activity in the following states: Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Wyoming, western Missouri, and northern New Mexico. Quarterly data for this indicator dates back to 1995, but monthly data is only available from 2001. New seasonal adjustment factors were introduced in January 2017 and slight revisions […]
Here We Go Again – Swell Numbers Which Aren’t
According to the financial press we have had some swell economic numbers in the last two days—so it’s giddy-up-and-go time for the stock market again. Thursday’s industrial production number was allegedly gangbusters and today’s housing start figure for October was described as a “boom” by the incorrigible headline writers at MarketWatch: The Commerce Department on Friday said October housing starts surged, rising […]
Bonfire Of The Absurdities
“Vanity of vanities, saith the Preacher, vanity of vanities; all is vanity.” – Ecclesiastes 1:2, King James Version (attributed to King Solomon in his old age) This week’s letter will take a look at the growing number of ridiculous, inane, and otherwise nonsensical absurdities that fill the daily economic headlines. I have gone from the […]
USD/JPY – How Far Will It Fall?
Over the past few weeks, the U.S. dollar has struggled despite progress on tax reform and the prospect of a Federal Reserve rate hike next month. The market may be convinced that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in December, but the most recent economic reports have been far from encouraging. At the same […]
The Social Security Inflation Lag Calendar – Partial Indexing
There is a lot of advice out there about Social Security – most of which is based on Social Security being fully inflation indexed. However, as we will establish in this first in a series of analyses, Social Security is only partially inflation indexed. As a matter of design, it does not fully keep up with inflation. […]
