10-Year/2-Year Treasury Spread Falls To Post-Recession Low
The debate about the value of the Treasury spread for business-cycle analysis is set to intensify in the wake of the latest slide in the difference between the 10-year and 2-year rates. Although the US economic trend remains healthy, the ongoing decline in the yield spread implies trouble ahead, based on this indicator’s historical record. US recessions […]
WTI Crude Oil And Natural Gas Forecast – Friday, Nov. 17
WTI Crude Oil The WTI Crude Oil market continues to dance around the $55 level, finding support at that level. However, the question now is whether we can break down or not. If we do, the market will probably find support at $53, as supply continues to be a significant issue. Alternately, if we were […]
Is Behavior Economics Good Economics?
Recently, a relatively new economics called Behavioral Economics (BE) has started to gain popularity. Its practitioners such as Daniel Kahneman, Vernon Smith and Richard Thaler were awarded Nobel prizes for their contribution in the field of BE. The BE framework emerged on account of dissatisfaction with the neo-classical theory regarding consumer choices. A major problem […]
Above The 40 – A Swift Break From The Market’s Downward Drip
AT40 = 45.8% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs)AT200 = 53.8% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 11.8 (10.4% loss)Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish Commentary It was one of THOSE days for anyone or anything standing in the way of the buyers. An overwhelming rush to the basket… (Philadelphia 76ers […]
E How Small Businesses Are Differentiating Themselves From E-Commerce Giants
The e-commerce industry is largely dominated by few giants. Amazon (AMZN) is the largest player in the market in terms of market capitalization. On the other side of the world, Alibaba (BABA) is growing fast as it continues to capitalize on its home country’s massive population and a growing community of online shoppers. Amazon and Alibaba have a combined […]
Draghi Hails The Solid Economic Expansion – EUR/USD Looks Solid
The president of the ECB has increasing confidence that the economic expansion is solid. This sounds like an upgrade in comparison to previous statements, which acknowledged the progress but did not sound so optimistic. However, inflation hasn’t reached the point of being self-sustained. Draghi is basically keeping things balanced with the normal caution about inflation. However, […]
Industrial Production Still Reflating
Industrial Production benefited from a hurricane rebound in October 2017, rising 2.9% above October 2016. That is the highest growth rate in nearly three years going back to January 2015. With IP lagging behind the rest of the manufacturing turnaround, this may be the best growth rate the sector will experience. Production overall was still […]
Yield Curve To Completely Flatten In 2018: But How?
The T. Rowe Price Group expects the yield curve to completely flatten in 2018. This is not a surprise as I have been commenting the same way for quite some time. The more important question is how? By yields converging up, down, or a mix? Please consider Bond Traders Should Prepare for Yield Curve to Zero […]
Perspective From A Trading Technologist — Attacking Unique Problems
Audio Length: 01:06:37 Rick Lane is the current CEO of Trading Technologies—a software provider that develop high-performance trading platforms which are used by; proprietary traders, hedge funds, CTAs, brokers and banks etc. The reason why I asked Rick to appear on this episode is because, as we know, not everyone is cut out to be […]
EUR/USD Bullish Bounce At 50% Fibonacci And 1.1750 Support
EUR/USD 4 hour EUR/USD retraced back to and bounced at the 1.1750 support level. Price then broke above the resistance trend line (dotted red) and therefore could be extending the wave 3 (pink). 1 hour The EUR/USD bounced at the 50% Fibonacci level of wave 4 (purple). There could be a wave 5 (purple) continuation […]
