Bond Yield Outlook
With the latest round of flash manufacturing PMI data, and a couple of key levels already being breached (across markets) it’s a good opportunity to review the outlook for bond yields. Forecasting higher bond yields has been a practice fraught with error over the past few years, and yet the forecasts continue. My preference is […]
A Modest Plan
Rembrandt van Rijn The Storm on the Sea of Galilee 1633 On March 18, 1990, the painting was stolen by thieves disguised as police officers. They broke into the Isabella Stewart Gardener Museum in Boston, MA, and stole this painting, along with 12 other works. The paintings have never been recovered, and it is considered the biggest […]
Market Talk – Wednesday, January 24
he DXY (Dollar Index) fell below the psychological 90 level today and that seemed to propel Asian stocks, whilst Europe preferred the currency. In Japan however, the Nikkei took the brunt of the selling, closing down (-0.8%) whilst the currency spent much of the day flirting with the 109 level. a gain of roughly 1.1%. […]
Flying Blind, Part 2: The Destruction Of Honest Price Discovery And Its Consequences
In Part 1 we noted that the real evil of Bubble Finance is not merely that it leads to bubble crashes, of which there is surely a doozy just around the bend; or that speculators get the painful deserts they fully deserve, which is coming big time, too; or even that the retail homegamers are always drawn into the slaughter at the very end, […]
The Market Was More Bullish
My Swing Trading Approach I added two trades to the portfolio yesterday, was whipped out of a another for a small profit. I will look to keep the portfolio the same, with little changes to it, beyond increasing my stops. If a great opportunity comes my way, I may pull the trigger on it. Indicators […]
FHFA House Price Index: Index Up 0.4% In November
The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) has released its U.S. House Price Index (HPI) for November. Here is the opening of the report: The FHFA House Price Index (HPI) reported a 0.4 percent increase in U.S. house prices in November from the previous month. From November 2016 to November 2017, house prices were up 6.5 […]
EC Speculative Exposure At An Unprecedented Level
Traders Don’t Care About Protection The price of the puts compared to calls is 2 standard deviations below the 5 year average as you can see in the chart below. You would think with stocks going up in a straight line, investors would seek to buy protection to lock in their gains. However, euphoria makes […]
December 2017 Headline Existing Home Growth Declines But Up For Whole Of 2017
The headline existing home sales growth declined with the authors saying “new listings struggled to keep up with what was sold very quickly, and buying became less affordable in a large swath of the country“. Our analysis of the unadjusted data is a bleaker picture than the headline data. Analyst Opinion of Existing Home Sales […]
