WTI/RBOB Spike After Massive Crude Draw
WTI/RBOB prices soared once again today amid hopes for an 8th straight week of crude draws (and overall stockpiles near 5y average levels). API did not disappoint with a massive 11.19mm crude draw (biggest since Sept ’16) and continued builds in gasoline and distillates. WTI Knee-jerked to the highs of the day. “The market is anticipating a […]
Job Openings May Have Peaked In The US
The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the monthly Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey today showing a relatively minor decrease in job openings through November. The number of job openings was little changed at 5.9 million on the last business day of November, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, hires and separations […]
Key Comments On Yields, USD, And Politics
With the moves today in the markets Chris made time to join me and share his thoughts. We look at yields, US markets, USD, and politics. Chris’s USD comments are especially noteworthy when looking at its move against currencies other than the Euro. (Audio length 00:13:02)
Gold Pauses On USD Strength
The current heavy focus on cryptocurrencies has meant less of a spotlight on gold, which has been staging an impressive rally since mid December, and which has seen the precious metal move from the strong platform of support in the $1235 per ounce region to a high of $1325, posted in last Thursday’s trading session. […]
The Most Important Chart In 2018 For U.S. Markets
Almost a year ago we warned readers about a potentially very important evolution on the very long term trends which we tend to call secular trends. In this article published early last year Disruption Ahead In Stock And Bond Markets? we explained what we are watching, and why. This is from last year’s article: Our favorite leading indicator […]
Market Talk – Tuesday, January 9
The Nikkei chased to record highs today following yesterdays national holiday. Closing at 26year high (+0.6% on the day) was an impressive performance made even more-so, by the fact the Yen strengthened. Trading around the mid 112’s looks comfortable this week but looks to be moving higher beginning February. Shanghai and Hong Kong were both […]
The Value Effect And Macroeconomic Risk
It has been well-documented that value stocks have provided higher expected returns than growth stocks. However, there is a great debate about the source of that premium: Is it risk-based or is it related to behavioral errors that create persistent mispricings? There are many papers presenting arguments on both sides. Hence the debate. Cathy Xuying Cao, Chongyang Chen […]
Best Pre-Earnings Period Since Q4 2010
Q4 Earnings Estimates Look Great This has been a remarkable pre-earnings period because the estimates have only moved down 0.3%. As you can see from the chart below, the earnings estimate change has been the best since when they were increased by 0.6% in Q4 2010. Q4 2010 was when the economy was just recovering […]
Yields Spiking On The Back Of A BoJ Statement
Doc joins me today to address the move in long-term yields. The Bank of Japan made a slightly surprise move last night by trimming its purchases of longer-dated JGBs. This is causing the US yields to spike with the 10 year now above 2.50%. However, 2.60% is the crucial level to watch. We also touch […]
Risk-Blind And The Great Bear Market Coming
Our son was born in December 1999, three months before the ‘irrationally exuberant’ stock market peak of March 2000. When he was young, we used to tell him that he was born at the top of the greatest stock market bubble of all time. Apparently we were mistaken. Celebrating his 18th birthday last month, we […]
