Inflation Remains Stubbornly High, But Incomes & Spending Data Stay Solid
Personal Consumption Expenditures minus food and energy (Core PCE) increased 0.2% in December, and 2.8% over the last 12 months. The Fed’s preferred indicator on inflation has now remained stubbornly in the 2.7% – 2.8% range for the last 7 months. Well above the Fed’s 2% target. Headline PCE increased 0.3% in December and 2.6% over the […]
Personal Income And Spending For December: More “Steady As She Goes” But With Late Cycle Characteristics
The December personal income and spending report showed that for the huge consumption sector of the economy, “steady as she goes” continued, as both nominal and real personal income and spending rose again in December. But as I emphasized one month ago, there are many signs of a late cycle configuration.Specifically, nominally personal income rose […]
After The Fed What Next For The SPX?
The CME Fed Watch Tool was accurate once again this week. The Fed maintained rates, and the markets remained relatively subdued even during the Powell press conference. This is evident in the 9-Day Vix chart, which only reached a high of 18.57, unlike Monday’s spike, which was triggered by the sharp pullback in the tech […]
Global Markets On Edge As Trump’s Tariff Deadline Nears
Image Source: Pexels As the February 1, 2025 deadline approaches, President Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs have created uncertainty across global markets. The administration plans to impose a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico, aiming to curb illegal immigration and fentanyl trafficking. Additionally, a 10% tariff on Chinese imports is under review, citing concerns over […]
Gold – US Dollar Attempting 14-Year Breakout
Looking at the price of Gold in US Dollars is critical to understanding its trend for US investors.Today we look at a “monthly” chart of the Gold to US Dollar ratio to highlight why Gold may be breaking out.If the Gold/Dollar ratio can hold above 14-year resistance at (1) and continue its rally off support, it will […]
Headline PCE Inflation Continues To Rise; Savings Rate Revised Down… Again
With constant fearmongery about Trump’s tariffs prompting a panic-flation, it is interesting to note that inflation data has been serially disappointing in recent weeks (printing below expectations)…Source: BloombergAnd this morning we get The Fed’s (old) favorite inflation indicator (until they changed their minds because it didn’t fit the narrative) – Core PCE – print at […]
US Dollar Adds To Gains With Tariff Talk And PCE As Main Drivers
The US Dollar outperforms against most major peers on Friday ahead of the US PCE data release. US President Trump has announced 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada as of Saturday. The US Dollar Index (DXY) moves away from 108.00 and hits a fresh weekly high at 108.37. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance […]
Elliott Wave Technical Analysis: McDonald’s Corp. – Friday, Jan. 31
McDonald’s Corp. (MCD) Elliott Wave Analysis – Daily ChartMCD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis Function: Trend Mode: Impulsive Structure: Motive Position: Wave (3) of 5 Direction: Upside within wave (3) Details: Seeking confirmation of wave (2) bottom after a clear three-wave move. Expecting further upside into wave 1 of (3) to validate wave (3)’s uptrend continuation. McDonald’s Corp. (MCD) Elliott Wave Analysis – 1-Hour ChartMCD Elliott Wave Technical […]
US Bond Market Rebounds So Far In 2025
Several risk factors that could end the bond market’s party, but for the moment US fixed-income markets are having a good year so far, based on prices through Thursday’s close (Jan. 30).Using a set of ETFs to profile the various slices of US bonds, assets are posting solid recoveries after a challenging 2024. Leading the […]
Pound Sterling Price News And Forecast: GBP Flattens Against USD Ahead Of US Core PCE Inflation Pound Sterling flattens against USD ahead of US core PCE inflation
Pound Sterling flattens against USD ahead of US core PCE inflationThe Pound Sterling (GBP) trades in a tight range slightly above the key support of 1.2400 against the US Dollar (USD) in Friday’s European session. The GBP/USD pair steadies despite an increase in the US Dollar’s safe-haven demand on Thursday after United States (US) President Donald Trump reiterated […]
