Exuberance Marks Start Of 2018
Last week, we discussed the record-setting year of the market. Not only did the markets tie the most number of up years for any bull market in history, it also hit records for the longest streak without a 3% correction, lowest volatility, record margin debt and more. The exuberance that surrounded the markets going into […]
GBP/USD: Looking For 1.40 In Q1 On 2 Key Factors – ING
Where is GBP/USD going? It hasn’t been able to rally beyond the moves driven by the dollar’s weakness, but hasn’t fallen either. What’s next? Here is ING’s view, courtesy of eFXnews: ING FX Strategy Research discusses the GBP outlook, and thinks that sterling is likely to reach 1.40 in Q1 of 2018 as as UK economic […]
ETF Watchlist: Week Of January 8, 2018
The equity markets kicked off 2018 in much the same way they closed out 2017 – a slow, steady march upwards. The Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq all posted four straight days of gains to kick off the new year. In fact, that’s four new ALL-TIME HIGHS to kick off the new year too. A […]
Economic Data And Forecasts For The Weeks Of Jan. 8 And Jan. 15
Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data. Forecast Prior Observation Consensus Week of January 8 January 8 Consumer Credit – November $19.0B 20.5 18.0 January 9 NFIB Small Business Optimism Index […]
Technicals Warn Of Coming Dollar Bounce
The US dollar had been sold hard in the second half of December through last week. Regardless of one’s medium or longer-term views, the technical indicators warn that the sell-off is stretched and in need of consolidation, if not a correction. The Dollar Index has formed a shelf near 91.75. Recall that the 91.55 area, which was […]
Dow 30,000 By Year End
The Dow Jones Industrial Average pushed through 25,000 in the first week of 2018. True to form, the President weighed in on this record and indicated 30,000 is the next target, skipping over the 1,000 increment target milestones. His comment was replayed numerous times on television by the financial media Thursday with many commentators spinning […]
E These High Dividend Stocks Are Attractive Now
Two years ago, on this site, I recommended buying a basket of Business Development Companies (“BDCs”). On concerns about higher interest rates and CLOs held by BDCs, the stocks had collapsed, and were trading often at 50% of their book value and with yields in the mid-teens. The bargains did not last. As the overblown […]
EC Export-Led Growth Is Just A Fallacy
A fruitful discussion this morning with my Mercatus Center colleague Dan Griswold prompts me to observe that “export-led growth” makes no more or less sense than does, say, “yellow-things-led growth” or “rectangular-things-led growth” or “things-that-grow-in-the-ground-led growth” or “things-the-French-language-names-of-which-start-with-the-letter-‘T’-led growth.” X-Led Growth Is Not a Thing Economic growth occurs only when, and only as, there are […]
Risk Hits Record Low, Ripple Ravaged As Gold Has Longest Ever Win Streak
Quick summary of this week’s records: Record highs for S&P, Dow, and Nasdaq. Lowest VIX close ever. First time VIX has ever traded at or below 9.00 for 3 straight days ever. Nasdaq’s best start to a year since 2004. Near record streak for stocks to remain within 5% of all-time high ever. Individual investors […]
Investors Aren’t Bullish Enough On US Stocks For 2018
Over the last few days, I’ve been listening to Wall Street firms talk about their expectations for the year ahead. Almost all of them have a positive view but it is the same standard presentation over and over. Most of them conclude that they prefer international stocks over US stocks because of valuation. While Europe […]
