Market Valuation, Inflation And Treasury Yields: Clues From The Past – Wednesday, Jan. 3
Note: The charts in this commentary have been updated to include the latest monthly data. Our monthly market valuation updates have long had the same conclusion: US stock indexes are significantly overvalued, which suggests cautious expectations on investment returns. In a “normal” market environment — one with conventional business cycles, Federal Reserve policy, interest rates and inflation — […]
An Unexpected Way To Benefit From Rising U.S. Interest Rates
While we all know that U.S. interest rates have, by and large, been in a downward trend since the early 1980s, over the past few years market participants have begun to think about positioning portfolios for rising interest rates. As the markets prepare for a transition period in which the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) starts to reduce its balance […]
Hot Options Report For End Of Day – Wednesday, Jan 3
Top tickers for the end of the day: CSCO, JPM, AMD and LC.
Tallgrass Makes 2 Acquisitions And Significant Developments
Midstream oil firm Tallgrass Energy Partners, LP (TEP – Free Report) has recently reported that the partnership has agreed to make two acquisitions through its subsidiary, Tallgrass Terminals LLC. The firm has also taken a few commercial development steps to increase its bouquet of various services. Pawnee Terminal Acquisition and Others The partnership will buy a 51% membership interest […]
3 Earnings Reports To Watch Tomorrow: MON, WBA, SONC
Tomorrow we get three big earnings reports to start the New Year and the fourth quarter reporting season, which roughly reflects company performance from October – December 2017 (varies by company). Monsanto (MON) Materials – Chemicals | Reports January 4, before the open. The Estimize consensus calls for EPS of $0.42, four cents higher than […]
Point Forecast For Real Equity Returns In 2018
Point forecasts are evil. Economists are asked to make point forecasts, and they oblige. But it’s a dumb thing to do, and they know it. Practitioners, who should know better, rely on these point forecasts far more than they should. Because, in economics and especially in markets, there are enormous error bars around any reasonable […]
Who Needs Predictions When There’s A Modern Family
Want to trade someone else’s list of Picks for 2018? You might. I do read very few of other people’s or firm’s picks-mainly to see if they agree with my own personal list. However, regardless of whether these lists resonate with you or not, what these lists lack are two essential components. 1. Any strategy for […]
The Great Risk Of So Many Dinosaurs
The Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee (TBAC) was established a long time ago in the maelstrom of World War II budgetary as well as wartime conflagration. That made sense. To fight all over the world, the government required creative help in figuring out how to sell an amount of bonds it hadn’t needed (in proportional terms) […]
Puerto Rico – Fourth Quarter 2017 Review
The Commonwealth of Puerto Rico entered the fourth quarter having suffered one of the most devastating natural disasters in the island’s history. Hurricane Maria left billions of dollars in damage in its wake, including both infrastructure damage and economic losses. The human costs have been equally terrible, with millions of US citizens suffering. Three months […]
Short Setups For The 2018 Bears
The shrinking list of stocks to short There will be more to come in the weeks and months that follow, and at various points throughout the year, the list will certainly be bigger than the one below, but with the market back in rally mode over the last two days, the list has shrunk considerably. […]
