US Equities – Are They Still In A Bull Market?
European investors investing in US equities are not happy. Since March 2017 their holdings are losing value measured in Euro: Source: Stockcharts.com While the S&P 500 (the lower panel of the chart) is still in its strong bull market, its equivalent measured in Euros is in its correction phase (the upper panel of the […]
As A Flurry Of Activity Hits This Week, All Eyes Will Still Be On Apple
After a weekend that was filled with news and analysis surrounding the impact of Hurricane Irma, we’re doing our best to turn our attention to what’s going to be the focus on the trading week ahead. There is something distinctly unnerving seeing equity markets relatively calm when mother nature is tossing a whopping 4 apocalyptic-like […]
Stock Bulls Shake Off Worries About Mounting Global Dangers
As expected, August brought more volatility. Early in the month, the large cap, mid cap, and small cap indices all set new all-time closing highs while the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) hit an all-time low. But then tough resistance levels failed to yield, the expected late-summer volatility set in, and support levels were tested. Nevertheless, […]
Dollar Stabilizes Despite Irma
The U.S. dollar headed higher on Monday morning despite the potential damage from Hurricane Irma, as President Donald Trump put pressure on Congress to speed up his overhaul of the tax system, placing the urgency on the hurricane and its expected economic impact which can be tempered by the tax reforms. Traders are also questioning the […]
2,000 Years Of Economic History In One Chart
ALL MAJOR POWERS COMPARED BY GDP FROM THE YEAR 1 AD Long before the invention of modern day maps or gunpowder, the planet’s major powers were already duking it out for economic and geopolitical supremacy. Today’s chart tells that story in the simplest terms possible. By showing the changing share of the global economy for each country […]
FX Week Ahead: SNB, BoE Meetings. US Inflation Data Ahead
The central bank monetary policy decisions continue into another week. However, this time around it is quite likely that there will not be any surprises. On the agenda this week, the Swiss National Bank will be meeting for its quarterly monetary policy review. This is later followed by the Bank of England’s monetary policy […]
The Reemergence Of Emerging Markets
Going through the latest numbers from the OECD Composite Leading Indicators data set I thought it would be worth sharing a couple of what I thought were particularly interesting charts. As the title suggests, they basically show the reemergence of emerging markets (from a cyclical perspective). The first chart shows the GDP weighted OECD leading indicators for […]
Oil Market Supply/Demand Finally Begins To Matter Again As Commodity Funds Withdraw
It’s been a long time since oil market supply/demand was based on physical barrels rather than financial flows: First, there was the subprime period, when the Fed artificially boosted demand and caused Brent to hit $147/bbl Then there was QE, where central banks gave free cash to commodity hedge funds and led Brent to hit $127/bbl In […]
Middle East Economic Challenges (As The Role Of Fossil Fuels Declines)
The Middle East and North Africa region contains about half of the world’s proven reserves of oil and natural gas. This has already proven to be a mixed blessing for economic growth in the region, and in a world economy where many countries are making efforts to reduce carbon-emitting sources of energy, a dependence on […]
No ‘Apocalypse Now’, But Maybe Later – Full Week Ahead Preview
The apocalypse is on hold. Although the human suffering will no doubt be profound, damage estimates from Hurricane Irma are already being rolled back on Sunday evening as the worst case scenario doesn’t seem to have materialized. Similarly, Kim hadn’t launched any more ICBMs as of early Asian trading and that prompted the yen to fall […]
