Emerging Markets: What Has Changed – Nov. 17
In the EM equity space as measured by MSCI, Korea (+4.2%), South Africa (+3.2%), and Thailand (+1.9%) have outperformed this week, while Egypt (-5.1%), Turkey (-1.9%), and Russia (-1.8%) have underperformed. To put this in better context, MSCI EM rose 0.7% this week while MSCI DM fell -0.3%. In the EM local currency bond space, […]
US Dollar: Politics To Overshadow Yellen Speech, FOMC Minutes
Fundamental Forecast for the US Dollar: Neutral US Dollar pressured as “Trump trade” narrative continues to fizzle Politics to overshadow Yellen speech, FOMC minutes, PMI surveys Holiday liquidity drain might amplify volatility on major news-flow The US Dollar continued to retreat last week as the prospect of expansionary fiscal policy that boosts inflation and nudges the Fed into a […]
Shrinking Home Sizes: Downtrend Continues
New home sizes peaked between 2014 and 2015. A distinct down-sizing is now underway. What’s going on? The National Association of Homebuilders (NAHB) reports Declining New Home Size Trend Continues. After increasing and leveling off in recent years, new single-family home size continued along a general trend of decreasing size during the third quarter of 2017. […]
Uranium Stocks In 2018: Pressure Cooker Ready To Explode
In line with our uranium forecast for 2018 we observe this week a potentially very bullish evolution both in uranium stocks as well as in uranium’s spot price. If this trend continues 2018 could become a hugely bullish year for uranium stocks. First, uranium’s spot price rose with 15 percent this week. Note the steep rally on the […]
Are Bearish Sentiment Responses Translating Into Actual Action?
The S&P 500 Index is only down .60% from its November 8, 2017 high yet individual investor and institutional equity sentiment has turned significantly less positive. This negative sentiment has not translated into broadly lower equity prices though, but knowing sentiment measures are contrary indicators, they are approaching levels that would be suggestive of higher […]
Week In Review: Shanghai Pharma Acquires Cardinal’s China Drug Distribution Network For $1.2 Billion
Shanghai Pharma (SHA: 601607) paid $1.2 billion to win the bidding war for Cardinal Health’s (NYSE: CAH) China drug distribution operations (see story). Cardinal was China’s eighth-largest drug distribution company, with $3.5 billion in 2016 China revenues, while Shanghai Pharma is number three. After the companies are combined, Shanghai Pharma will become number one. In 2010, Cardinal got a foothold in […]
Euro, Yen And Sterling Regain Footing
The US dollar is trading with a heavier bias against the euro, sterling, and yen, but is firmer against the Antipodean currencies and many of the actively traded emerging market currencies. This mixed performance is the story of the week. The US 2-10 yr yield curve is flattening further today with the two-year pushing above 1.70% for the first time since the […]
Economic Data And Forecasts For The Weeks Of November 20 And November 27
Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data. Forecast Prior Observation Consensus Week of November 20 November 20 Leading Indicators 0.4% -0.1 0.6 November 21 Chicago Fed National Activity Index – October […]
E SPX Declines To Short-Term Support
VIX rallied from its mid-Cycle resistance at 14.59 before closing above Long-term support at 11.11. VIX is on a buy signal. The inverted Head & Shoulders formation now has a completed right shoulder giving a potential target for the next move higher when the neckline is exceeded. (Barrons) The CBOE Volatility Index spiked to […]
Upcoming Earnings Reports To Watch: CRM, HPE, DE
We have already moved past the traditionally busy stretch of earnings season, but there are still several key reports to look forward to next week. So far, Q3 earnings have been strong across the board, so it will be interesting to see whether these reports will continue that trend and inspire strong trading for the […]
