What The Bond Market Got Wrong About Today’s Debt Ceiling Extension
Sometimes the bond market gets it wrong too. Earlier today, when Trump “flipped” on the GOP and aligned with congressional Democrats at a White House meeting to fund the government and raise the debt ceiling through Dec. 15. despite objections from virtually all Republicans, the threat of a late September/early October debt ceiling crisis disappeared. The bond […]
Carlyle Prices Offering Of $400 Million In Preferred Units
Global alternative asset manager The Carlyle Group L.P. (Nasdaq: CG) (“Carlyle”) today announced the pricing of a $400 million offering of 16,000,000 of its 5.875% Series A Preferred Units representing limited partner interests with a liquidation preference of $25.00 per unit. The offering is expected to close on September 13, 2017, subject to satisfaction of customary […]
Short Setups To Watch In The Days Ahead
I’m not shorting any of these right now, but if the market does sell-off again, a lot of these stocks, especially the financials, will be nice candidates to short.
Q3 Earnings Estimates Fall – Debt Ceiling Issue In Focus
Only 4.9% YoY Earnings Growth Expected In Q3 The FactSet weekly earnings presentations resumed this week. As you can see from the chart below, the finalized metrics from the Q2 earnings season show there was a negative bias to every type of report which meant even firms that beat estimates fell. This action was reversed […]
Window Dressing Looks To Be Over
I’m seeing more failed breakouts now and reducing positions as they tell me to. We’re into September and just had a nice quick run to finish August so weakness, which is typical in September, has to be something to look for. I also want to announce my retirement from the newsletter business the end of […]
Irma Uncertainty Decreases As Models Lock On; Commodities Less Fazed Today
As of 2 PM Eastern the National Hurricane Center has released their latest advisory on Irma, and these advisories will continue coming every 3 hours until the storm dissipates. Irma still has sustained winds of 185 mph and is an extremely powerful category 5 hurricane. The National Hurricane Center has also adjusted their track to […]
What’s Going On With Gold?
There is a revival of interest in gold and precious metal stocks, with gold breaking through the $1300 an ounce level to new highs this year. Investors are taking heed. I think I need to reiterate a running theme in my investment philosophy. I am not one of those that believe that good economic times […]
Of Rules And Slack, And The Real Rule Of Slack
In 1993, Stanford economist John B. Taylor wrote an influential paper that introduced the economics profession (statisticians, almost all) to what was later called the Taylor Rule. The need for such a “rule” was an unspoken outgrowth of monetary evolution. In the 1960’s and 1970’s long-established regression models estimating the influence of then-defined money on […]
First Glimpse Of Harvey Impact Shows Biggest Crude Build In 5 Months, Smaller Gasoline Draw Than Expected
Amid all the chaos of Harvey’s outages and Irma’s expectations, tonight’s API inventory seems relatively irrelevant but we are sure the machines will be all over it – no matter that it will be guesstimated more than normal. WTI was at one-month highs above $49 as API printed and knee-jerked lower despite a smaller than expected crude build […]
