September Seasonality Statistics
For us southern hemisphere dwellers, September brings spring, but for the S&P 500 September brings sinister seasonal statistics. Over the period 1964-2016 September has been the month with the worst average return (average -0.4% m/m) and the lowest probability of a positive return (returns were positive for the month ‘only’ 45% of the time). With a […]
AUDCAD – Pop To Parity?
Everyone has their eyes out for the Bank of Canada rate decision tomorrow at 1000 NY time. Aside from the ECB meeting a day later it is the most important event of the week. The market is leaning heavily long loonie anticipating that the BOC will signal that a rate hike is coming in October […]
Volatility On The Rise As Expected. What’s Next For Stocks?
Stock markets are in red today driven by U.S. markets. That should not come as a surprise as InvestingHaven warned readers back in April that volatility would start rising around summer time. According to InvestinHaven’s proprietaty market barometer there would be serious volatility as of summer 2017. The S&P 500 was down more than 1% around noon […]
Sanderson Farms Is A “Strong Buy”
Today, we take a look at Sanderson Farms (SAFM). Sanderson Farms Inc. is a fully-integrated poultry processing company engaged in the production, processing, marketing and distribution of fresh and frozen chicken products. The company sells ice pack, chill pack and frozen chicken, in whole, cut-up and boneless form, primarily under the Sanderson Farms7 brand name […]
The Breaks Are Happening
It’s a very quiet day for me; I’m just tightening up stops and thumbing through lists for new ideas; the symbol below, Axis Capital, is representative of the kinds of “breaks” I am seeing take place, which I believe are representative of some broad reversals happening in some sectors.
VIX Carry Trade & Crude Oil
S&P 500 Index (SPX) 2476.55 added another 33.50 points or +1.37% for the week closing back above the 50-day moving average now at 2452.65, the blue line in the charts below. The risk that the rebound could be limited to the top of the downward sloping channel trendline and then retest 2400 detailed in Digest Issue 34 […]
S&P 500 Index: Momentum Is Waning
The momentum and rate of change indicators have been making a series of lower highs since July 2016 on the Weekly timeframe of the SPX, as shown below. Price has been climbing along the underbelly of a trajectory (beginning in August 2015) set from the 2009 lows to this year’s highs, as shown on the following Monthly chart. This is […]
Bank Of Canada Ready To Hike Or Blink?
Over the last 5 months the Bank of Canada has gone from worrying about flat wages and high household debt to planning a series of rate hikes into 2018. With the US Fed too afraid to hike, this has led to a rally in the loonie and a sell off in Canadian bonds relative to […]
This Bloodbath Is Your Next Opportunity
Some of the retail company stocks plunged yesterday. No, this wasn’t on an earnings announcement. It was in response to a breaking news item that sent shock waves through those stocks. It created an instant bloodbath. But I think the opportunity from this bloodbath is bigger than just one recommendation, and that the declines in these […]
Regression To Trend: Another Look At Long-Term Market Performance – Tuesday, September 5
Quick take: At the end of August the inflation-adjusted S&P 500 index price was 103% above its long-term trend, unchanged from the previous month. About the only certainty in the stock market is that, over the long haul, over performance turns into under performance and vice versa. Is there a pattern to this movement? Let’s apply […]
