Delivering Negative Alpha
“No matter how you “slice-and-dice the data,” hedge funds are struggling to meet their promise to clients to consistently produce high returns with low correlation to markets. It’s kind of: ‘I promise you a Rolls Royce and I give you a Honda.’” – Matt Granade, Chief Market Intelligence Officer, Point72 Asset Management There are more hedge funds […]
A Market On Edge
Stocks end a volatile week right where it began the week. In this crucial weekend update learn we look at what to expect next week and what risks are lurking.
‘Anything Without A Cusip’
Let’s assume we are in fact late-cycle. Some folks will tell you that’s not the case and they’ll roll out all kinds of cherry picked metrics to support their contention that “mid-cycle” is a better description of where things stand. One thing worth noting about those arguments is that they are incomplete if the person […]
NEO Cryptocurrency Coin Started Another Mega Rally?
Cryptocurrency NEO, which is also known as the Chinese variant of Ethereum, rose a spectacular 50% today. Although not visible on this chart it touched $45 USD per coin a couple of hours ago. Note that NEO was trading at $25 USD on November 1. According to Wikipedia NEO tries to create “a financial system that will […]
Philippines GDP Growth Exceeds Expectations: ETFs In Focus
The Philippines witnessed impressive economic growth in the third quarter of 2017. Per the National Statistics Agency, GDP grew 6.9% year over year in the third quarter compared with 6.7% in the prior quarter and 7.1% in the year-ago period. It also beat a Bloomberg forecast of 6.6%. The Philippines has been one of the best performing […]
Yuan Likely To Consolidate As PBOC Maintains Neutral Monetary Policy
Fundamental Forecast for CNH: Neutral The PBOC will continue the current monetary policy, which has neutral impact to the Yuan. The regulator watches capital flows and told it would counter against cycles through FX market. A high level of broad credit and soaring real-estate prices prevent the PBOC to cut rates. The Chinese Yuan gained against […]
European Junk Bonds Now Yield More Than U.S. Treasuries
On Friday, the small caps outperformed the mega caps as the Russell 2000 – RUT was up 0.40%, while the Dow was down 0.43%. In the midst of this middling action, the JNK high yield bond index was down 0.05% and the HYG high yield bond index was down 0.03%. The chart below shows the […]
Tracking The Bear – Nov. 17
Last week, I discussed the potential year-end setup for a January correction. To wit: “It is the turn of the calendar where I see the potential for a bigger correction. Come January, I think there is a high-likelihood of ‘tax selling’ by fund-managers to lock in gains, particularly if ‘tax reform’ legislation has passed, as taxes won’t be […]
Emerging Markets: What Has Changed – Nov. 17
In the EM equity space as measured by MSCI, Korea (+4.2%), South Africa (+3.2%), and Thailand (+1.9%) have outperformed this week, while Egypt (-5.1%), Turkey (-1.9%), and Russia (-1.8%) have underperformed. To put this in better context, MSCI EM rose 0.7% this week while MSCI DM fell -0.3%. In the EM local currency bond space, […]
US Dollar: Politics To Overshadow Yellen Speech, FOMC Minutes
Fundamental Forecast for the US Dollar: Neutral US Dollar pressured as “Trump trade” narrative continues to fizzle Politics to overshadow Yellen speech, FOMC minutes, PMI surveys Holiday liquidity drain might amplify volatility on major news-flow The US Dollar continued to retreat last week as the prospect of expansionary fiscal policy that boosts inflation and nudges the Fed into a […]
