Next-Generation Crazy: The Fed Plans For The Coming Recession
Insanity, like criminality, usually starts small and expands with time. In the Fed’s case, the process began in the 1990s with a series of (in retrospect) relatively minor problems running from Mexico’s currency crisis thorough Russia’s bond default, the Asian Contagion financial crisis, the Long Term Capital Management collapse and finally the Y2K computer bug. […]
E No Housing Bubble In Canada: It Is All About Supply Constraints
By now, the surge in housing prices in Canada, and in particular, Toronto and Vancouver, have received a wide spread attention. International observers label the market as a bubble that has to burst. Observers point out that average house prices in these two cities have more than doubled in the past decade, a rate that […]
A TIC Look At Qualitative Contraction
The latest update of the Treasury Department’s Treasury International Capital (TIC) estimates clarified a few things. To begin with, for the month of September the Chinese sold UST’s again for the first time in seven months. Between the end of January and the end of August, the Chinese had added $149.4 billion in UST holdings. […]
Brexit: Still A Process, Not Yet A Destination
I happened to be in the United Kingdom on a long-planned family vacation on June 23, 2016, when the Brexit vote took place. At the time, I offered a stream-of-consciousness “Seven Reflections on Brexit” (June 26, 2016). But more than year has now passed, and Thomas Sampson sums up the research on what is known and what might […]
Exodus: U.S. Funds See 3rd Largest Junk Outflow On Record
Just how nervous did folks get during the junk bond rout that finally took a breather when spreads tightened materially on Thursday? Well, pretty damn nervous, according to the flows data. “Following the decline in high yield bond prices this month, high yield US funds and ETFs reported $4.43bn in outflows this past week,” BofAML […]
Stocks Going Ex Dividend The Fourth Week Of November 2017
Here is our latest update on the stock trading technique called ‘Buying Dividends,’ also commonly referred to as ‘Dividend Capture.’ This is the process of buying stocks before the ex dividend date and selling the stock shortly after the ex date at about the same price, yet still being entitled to the dividend. This technique generally works only […]
ECRI Weekly Leading Index: WLI At 5.5% YoY
Today’s release of the publicly available data from ECRI puts its Weekly Leading Index (WLI) at 145.6, down 0.1 from the previous week. Year-over-year the four-week moving average of the indicator is now at 5.52%, down from 5.53% last week. The WLI Growth indicator is now at 2.7, down from the previous week. “Why So […]
Rob From The Middle Class Economics
Much of our financial world functions as a “Rob from the Middle Class” economy. The system robs from the middle class and poor via “money printing” and inflation of the currency supply! The rich get richer and the poor get poorer. Little benefit comes from complaining about the process or fighting it. Understand the process, […]
This Market Wants To Go Back To Its All-Time Highs Again
My Swing Trading Approach I need to see this market demonstrate some follow through on yesterday’s rally that pushes price action back to or near its all-time highs. Indicators VIX – Dropped 10% yesterday down to 11.76. Far off its recent range of sub-10. Broke the 5-day wining streak. T2108 (% of stocks trading below their 40-day […]
Don’t Let Home-Bias Investing Trip You Up
The total U.S. stock market has gained over 20% during the past year and is doing great. But for U.S. investors that are under-weighted to foreign stocks, it’s not so great. Why? Because foreign stocks have convincingly outperformed U.S. equities, thereby causing a performance deficit. What’s the problem? The tendency of investors to concentrate and […]
