USDCAD – Back To 1.2500?
The loonie has been a persistent loser for the past six weeks as the Bank of Canada did an abrupt about-face and turned resolutely neutral after surprisingly hawkish since the summer. After hiking rates not once but twice, the BOC saw its currency appreciate too much for its own liking and saw CAD data […]
Duties Imposed Against Chinese “Dumping” Hurt American Consumers
For years, special interests have called on the U.S. government to “level the playing field” in the form of duties, levies, and other antiquated measures. Democrats and Republicans alike have aired their grievances over the trade deficit, grumbling about exporters hurting American workers by flooding the market with cheap goods. These complaints are deeply misguided. […]
Market Nearing Short-Term Oversold Conditions
My Swing Trading Approach I’m looking to add 1-2 new positions today, but will remain cautious in the early going, which is where the market has been the most vulnerable to sell offs, recently. Indicators VIX – Highest close since 8/21. Has rallied 7 out of the last 8 days, though each session sees the sellers […]
NAHB Housing Market Index: “Builder Confidence Climbs To 8-Month High In November”
The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index (HMI) is a gauge of builder opinion on the relative level of current and future single-family home sales. It is a diffusion index, which means that a reading above 50 indicates a favorable outlook on home sales; below 50 indicates a negative outlook. The latest […]
Commodities Ready To Strengthen
The commodity ETF symbol DBC had been trapped beneath resistance for over two years, but it broke out recently. The weakness we saw in crude oil earlier this week dragged it down some, but it’s push up off support at this point (see arrow). If this level holds (16.05) we could be entering a new upswing in […]
What Caused Japan’s Mini-Volatility Shock?
All’s well that ends well in Japan after a six-day slide. Or maybe not. The Nikkei rebounded on Thursday, rising 1.5% and snapping a rout that encompassed a rather disconcerting episode of volatility that unfolded during last Thursday’s session. If you recall, things suddenly went to pieces a week ago when, after rising in the […]
Stocks Are Surging, But What Happens When Europe Closes?
Not the same shit on this different day… The Dow is up 180 points, VIX is below 11.5, HYG is up the most in 3 months… all following China’s massive 820 billion Yuan liquidity injection. There’s just two things… The FX market ain’t buying it… And nor are bonds… So what happens when Europe closes…
Volatility ETFs Jump On Rising Fear
Volatility has crumpled the global stock market this week dampening the appeal for riskier assets. This is especially true as stocks around the world logged in their longest losing streak in eight months on Nov 15. The uncertainty in tax reform, as well as a flattening yield curve, is weighing heavily on the stocks. Notably, […]
If QE Was Mostly Placebo, What About The Unwind?
During the Great Depression, countries discovered their balance sheets. Fiscal spending helped augment aggregate demand. After the WWII, high income countries have typically run persistent deficits, resulting in the accumulation of debt. During the Great Financial Crisis, central bank balance sheets were discovered. Central banks bought a variety of assets, but especially their own government bonds. The idea was […]
The Fed’s Bubblenomics
If you Google “dot com bubble,” you will get nearly 1.2 million hits, and 3.3 million hits if you Google “tech bubble.” A Google search of “housing bubble” will return nearly 11 million hits. (The searches were conducted on March 29, 2017). And if you search Amazon books for financial crisis 2008 you will get […]
