Can U.S. Interest Rates Ever Rise?
While interest rates have risen from depths that saw the 10-year treasury yielding 1.36% on 7/3/16, to 2.25% today, given Fed plans to tighten and pledge to shrink its balance sheet should rates be even higher? The Fed will typically engage in the monetary policy of tightening and lift the Fed Funds rate when the two […]
Last Week’s Rally In Gold Stocks Erased
Gold, silver and the USD Index didn’t do much in yesterday’s trading, but that was not the case with mining stocks. The divergence between gold stocks and gold was particularly visible and the implications are once again particularly important. Let’s take a look at the charts, starting with the HUI Index (gold stock chart courtesy of StockCharts). […]
Low Inflation: Should We Worry?
Binyamin Appelbaum had an interesting discussion of inflation in the NYT yesterday. As he notes, it has been below the Fed’s target throughout the recovery and, contrary to expectations, it has been falling in recent months. This suggests that the economy could be operating at a higher level of output with more employment. That would put more […]
Home Prices Rose 5.6% Year-Over-Year NSA In May, Sixth Record High
With today’s release of the May S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, we learned that seasonally adjusted home prices for the benchmark 20-city index were up 0.1% month over month. The seasonally adjusted national index year-over-year change has hovered between 4.2% and 5.8% for the last twenty-seven months. Today’s S&P/Case-Shiller National Home Price Index (nominal) reached another […]
‘Throw Us A Little Volatility Here, We’re Begging You’
There’s been no shortage of shrieking from the peanut gallery about the extent to which financial conditions have steadfastly refused to tighten despite multiple Fed hikes and token nods at balance sheet normalization. Stubbornly loose financial conditions have of course contributed to the continued inflation of bubbles in financial assets and to the draconian suppression […]
Bonds Battered Ahead Of Fed – 30Y Yield Back Above 2.90%
In its ubiquitous manner, traders are selling bonds ahead of tomorrow’s ‘nothingburger’ from The Fed. While no rate move is expected, more color on balance sheet normalization is perhaps spooking bonds a bit as the long-end yields are up 7bps, back above 2.90%… Some key levels for the 30y Yield… So the long-end yield is […]
Newmont Mining Corporation Q2 Results Show Improved Operational And Financial Performance Across The Board
Newmont Mining Corporation (NYSE: NEM ) today announced second quarter 2017 results that demonstrated improved operational and financial performance as follows: Financial Performance Results Net income: UP to $192 million or $0.36 per diluted share UP from $14 million from $14 million or $0.02 per share in the prior year quarter. Adjusted net income: UP […]
U.S. Treasuries: Caution, Low Ceilings
With most of the focus in Washington, D.C., being centered on the repeal and replacement of the Affordable Care Act, a topic that had garnered a great deal of attention in the past seems to be flying under the radar: the debt ceiling. This disparity in media coverage will more than likely continue, but in […]
Trump’s “First America” Trade Frictions Are About To Begin
After the US-Sino Comprehensive Economic Dialogue, trade issues are alienating not only China and America’s NATO allies – but its NAFTA partners, Canada and Mexico. As the Trump administration’s first US-Sino Comprehensive Economic Dialogue (CED) ended in Washington, it could only agree on three no’s: canceled news conferences, no joint statement and no new announcements […]
Earnings Estimates For Q3 Drop Further
This week will be the biggest earnings week of the year as 190 firms are reporting, including Facebook, Alphabet, and Amazon. Those three reports will shape the performance of the market for the next few months. If 2 or 3 miss estimates, the rally could be halted, especially in the Nasdaq which has had a […]
