Weekly Forex Forecast – Sunday, July 23
NZD/USD The New Zealand dollar initially fell during the week but bounced enough to reach towards the 0.75 level above. That’s an area that should cause a significant amount of resistance, so I think that if we stay below there, the market is prone to pullbacks. This pullback should intervene buying opportunities though, because I […]
‘The Risk Has Risen’: When Will Oil Prices Matter For Junk?
Crude took a rather precipitous dive on Friday in the wake of a veritable gut punch from Petro–Logistics, who said OPEC supply in July is expected to exceed 33 million barrels a day. That would be the highest since December 2016. That rather unfortunate (if you’re a bull) development undercut what was otherwise a half-decent week that saw another […]
What To Do With Your Cash?
Is it folly to hold cash right now? Or brilliant? Have you moved a material percentage of your financial portfolio to cash? Have you become so concerned about the meteoric ramp upwards in asset prices that you find it wiser instead to move to the sidelines, build “dry powder”, and wait to re-enter the markets […]
Weekly Macro Themes – Sunday, July 23
Here’s a brief preview of the topics and charts covered in the latest edition of the Weekly Macro Themes report. 1. China property check: The June round of property price data showed broadening gains YoY, but a potential omen in Tier-1 cities falling MoM. 2. Copper crossroads: After the rebound in late 2016 Copper a couple of important signals […]
To Retrace Or To Advance, That Is A Question Around The Yuan
Fundamental Forecast for CNH: Neutral The USD/CNH was testing a key support level of 6.7580 (the January 2016 high) last week, though it failed to break below the level. Amid the Dollar weakness, the USD/CNH has remained in a downward trend since May. Looking forward, Chinese regulators’ guidance, July FOMC decision, as well as U.S. data prints are more likely to […]
Weekly Economic & Political Timeline – Sunday, July 23
This week will be dominated by high-impact U.S. data, including one of the primary market highlights of the month, the FOMC Statement and Federal Funds Rate. Therefore, volatility this week should be somewhat higher than it was last week. The market will probably be most active on Wednesday. U.S. Dollar It will be a very […]
Are They Pressing Their Luck? Specs Now Most Short Yen Since 2014
This was an interesting week in FX markets. And that’s probably an understatement. Equally interesting is the breakdown of FX positions from the latest CFTC data, out Friday and current, as usual, through Tuesday. Last night, while you were getting drunk (count me jealous), we brought you the latest on positioning in the euro (where […]
New Age Mandate
A journalist’s question during Mario Draghi’s ECB post-meeting press conference: “…There was a sharp reaction from financial markets to your Sintra speech. You must have looked at the Fed experience of 2013. Is there any concern in the Governing Council that the so-called tantrum or a similar reaction can happen in the eurozone when you start […]
Retail’s Not So Conspicuous Consumption
Friday on Mish’s Market Minute Daily Facebook page, I introduced the second Modern Family cartoon character, Grandma Retail. As the megatrend of online shopping increases exponentially, brick and mortar retail chains in malls have suffered. Considering the price of Amazon’s stock is trading above $1000, Nordstrom’s in comparison, trades at $47.00. That’s nearly half of […]
Technical Market Report For July 22, 2017
The good news is: All of the major indices closed at all-time highs last Wednesday or Thursday. The Negatives New highs continued their failure to confirm the index highs. The first chart covers the past 6 months showing the Nasdaq composite (OTC) in blue and a 10% trend (19 day EMA) of Nasdaq new highs […]
