E Financial Forecasts – Myth Or Reality?
During a recent trip from San Francisco to Ohio, I spent several hours indulging in the Wall Street Journal, cover-to-cover. Fascinated by their second quarter Markets Review & Outlook Section on July 3, 2017, I fervently read the predictions made by pros compared with reality. I assumed that at least one prediction for the markets […]
10 Best Stocks For Value Investors This Week – 7/22/17
I evaluated 38 different companies this week to determine whether they are suitable for Defensive Investors, those unwilling to do substantial research, or Enterprising Investors, those who are willing to do such research. I also put each company through the ModernGraham valuation model based on Benjamin Graham’s value investing formulas in order to determine an intrinsic value for […]
Overvaluation Is NOT Due To Passive Investing
There’s been a lot of words thrown around lately saying that indexing has been leading to overvaluation of the US stock market. I’m here to tell you that is wrong. I have two reasons for that: 1) Active managers have been pseudo-indexing for a long time. The moment they get benchmarked to an index they […]
Earnings Still Matter
One of the most important new trends is that stocks are becoming more volatile during earnings season. As you can see from the chart below, earnings moves are 4 times the size as the average daily move. The most obvious explanation that many give for this is the prevalence of ETF investing. ETF investors don’t […]
AUD/USD Forecast July 24 – 28 2017
AUD/USD enjoyed another strong week, gaining 90 points. The pair closed at 0.7912, its highest weekly close since December 2014. The major event this week is CPI. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD. In Australia, employment gains slowed, but were still close to the estimate. Over in the US, political […]
E Maybe End Of The Line For SPX Rally
VIX declined beneath the June 9 low at 9.37. In doing so, it may have fulfilled the requirements for its Ending Diagonal formation. The Cycles Model suggests a reversal is imminent. Once complete, the upside move may be very fast. (ZeroHedge) How Bad a Damage If Volatility Rises: The Bear Trap of Short Vol […]
Law 101 Meets Psych 101
Steve Saville has a post out called Don’t Think Like a Lawyer. In the post he notes the following… “The job of a judge or juror is to impartially weigh the evidence and arguments put forward by both sides in an effort to determine which side has the stronger case. The job of a lawyer is to […]
Economic Data And Forecasts For The Weeks Of July 24 And July 31
Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data. Forecast Prior Observation Consensus Week of July 24 July 24 PMI Manufacturing Flash Index 52.0 52.0 52.0 PMI Services Flash Index 54.2 54.2 54.1 Existing Home Sales […]
5 Actionable Lessons From The Enron Scandal
Although more than a decade has passed, the name ‘Enron’ continues to hold notoriety in the investing community. Enron’s 2001 bankruptcy destroyed more than $60 billion of shareholder value. At the time of its bankruptcy, Enron was the seventh-largest company in the United States. Additionally, Enron’s $63.4 billion in assets made it the largest bankruptcy ever (until it was […]
Upcoming Earnings Reports To Watch: GOOGL, CMG, FB, AMZN
Earnings season is in full bloom, as numerous publicly traded companies continue to release their latest earnings reports, which are providing investor with fresh updates on consumer tendencies, economic conditions, and company specific financial outlooks. However, it is extremely easy to become lost in all the different earnings and financial releases over the next month. […]
