E VIX On Buy Signal While SPX Consolidates
VIX rose from its Master Cycle low to close above Long-term support/resistance at 11.11. VIX is now on a buy signal. The inverted Head & Shoulders formation now has a completed right shoulder giving a potential target for the next move higher. (Bloomberg) Volatility roared back into the U.S. equity market as fresh concern […]
USAA Launches Intermediate-Term Total Bond Market ETF
USAA launched a new fixed-income fund focused on providing exposure to the aggregate bond market. USAA Core Intermediate-Term Bond ETF UITB tracks the Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index and holds a portfolio of bonds that primarily target the intermediate end of the yield curve. Fund Characteristics The fund’s index seeks to measure the performance of intermediate […]
Economic Data And Forecasts For The Weeks Of November 13 And November 20
Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data. Forecast Prior Observation Consensus Week of November 13 November 13 Treasury Budget – October -$60.0B 8.0 -58.1 November 14 Producer Price Index – October […]
US Dollar: Yellen, Key Data May Boost Politics-Driven Volatility
Fundamental Forecast for the US Dollar: Neutral US Dollar down as Senate tax cut proposal underwhelms markets Politics likely still in focus as markets weigh impact 2018 Fed path Yellen speech, CPI and retail sales data amplify risk of volatility Politics dominated US Dollar price action last week, as expected. Senate Republicans underwhelmed with their version of tax […]
This, That & The Other Thing
Last week, I was unable to produce a newsletter so I will be updating my analysis from two weeks ago. Fortunately, nothing has changed much as the ongoing levitation of asset prices in hopes of “tax cuts/reform” still linger even as the risk of disappointment seems to have risen. On Thursday and Friday, the market experienced […]
Week In Review: China’s Creat To Restructure $1.5 Billion Biotest Takeover
Creat Group of China has withdrawn its current $1.5 billion offer to acquire Biotest, a German blood plasma products corporation, because US regulators refused to approve the deal (see story). According to Bloomberg, the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States was worried that a China corporation would have access to US donor information. Creat and Biotest said the acquisition can not be […]
Saturday Charts Review
The ECRI index is pointing higher, and the small caps are still holding above an uptrend line. These indicators are favorable, even though the summer weakness in the ECRI index may be indicating a spotty economy in the months ahead. The weak M2 growth is a concern. This index is very sensitive to the […]
Fed’s Balance Sheet Increases This Week
Houses Too Expensive? This sentiment indicator for housing is interesting because it isn’t a contrarian indicator. Usually when you see investors euphoric about stocks, you want to sell. In this poll, the slightly over heated market is being met with skepticism. People in the housing market are much more rational than stock speculators. Although the […]
The Spiral: ‘History Repeats Itself And The Price Is Higher Each Time’
Regular readers will recall that we’ve written a ton on the rolling boom-bust cycles that invariably accompany an untethered system (i.e. a system that is not based on or anchored to a universally accepted, finite store of value like precious metals). Importantly, we separate this discussion from considerations about the actual value of gold or […]
