US New Home Sales Miss With 571k – USD Slips
US new home sales fell short of expectations falling by 9.4% to 571K. However, the fall is from 630K in June, an upwards revision from the original release. The fall in July is attributed to supply rather than demand. Nevertheless, the US dollar is falling across the board. Perhaps the publication serves as an excuse […]
The Gullible Nation
As was widely reported yesterday, the huge surge in stocks was caused by excitement over the prospect of Trump getting major tax reform pushed through. Seriously… my query is this… are you out of your Vulcan mind? How does ANYONE think that the President, who in seven months has the single accomplishment of nominated a judge to the SCOTUS (an act any of us […]
Global Financial Crisis 10 Years On: Gold Rises 100% From $650 To $1,300
Gold price up over 100% in major currencies since financial crisis Has outperformed majority of equity and bonds Global debt continues to increase despite claims of ‘recovery’ Gold remains an important safe-haven in long-term Gold prices from August 9th 2007 to August 9th 2017 It has been ten years since the global financial crisis began to […]
USDJPY Elliott Wave View: Turning Lower
Short-term USDJPY Elliott wave view suggests that the decline from 7/11 peak is unfolding as a double three Elliott wave structure. Decline to 108.71 low ended Minor wave W and Minor wave X bounce ended at 110.95 peak. Subdivision of Minor wave Y is unfolding as a Zigzag structure. Minute wave ((w)) of ((Y) ended at 108.59 low […]
Economics: The Failure Of The Trump Presidency
This is a second update on the economy with some thoughts on where we are in the business cycle. Yesterday, in my first update, I talked about monetary policy because of the upcoming Fed meeting in Jackson Hole. This time, I want to talk more about the political economy. I think the headline mostly gets at […]
Look Out: Euro Jumps As Draghi Silent On FX Risk, PMIs Come In Hot
Score one for the crowd who thinks that Mario Draghi is going to have a difficult time keeping a lid on euro strength. You’ll recall that there’s considerable debate about whether the ECB chief will use his Jackson Hole speech as an opportunity to try and jawbone the euro lower after the latest ECB minutes flagged “FX […]
Fiat Chrysler Price Target Raised To $19 On Break-Up Potential At Jefferies
Jefferies analyst Philippe Houchois raised his price target on Fiat Chrysler to $19 from $14 citing his view of the increased probability of changes to the group’s structure given that China’s Great Wall and FCA “seem to be sizing each other up” and the idea of an independent Maserati/Alfa-Romeo is “growing on” him. Given […]
Breadth Still Not Great
The S&P 500 re-took its 50-day moving average yesterday, but unfortunately, it did so without more than half of its index members closing above their 50-days as well. As shown below, only 48% of stocks in the S&P are currently above their 50-day moving averages. Bulls would like to see a much stronger reading than […]
Stocks Slide After Trump Threatens Government Shutdown Over Wall Funding, Killing NAFTA
Yesterday, when stocks surged at the market open following Politico’s report that Trump is unexpectedly “making strides” on tax reform, we warned that “it can all be wiped away as soon as tonight, when Trump will deliver a speech to his “base”, in which he may promptly burn any of the goodwill he created with capital markets […]
EC Buffett Is Loading Up On BNY Mellon: Here’s Why
The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation (BK) has been a holding in Warren Buffett’s investment portfolio since the third quarter of 2010. Why is this important? Well, Warren Buffett is arguably the best investor ever. He has grown his company, Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-A) (BRK-B), to a ~$444 billion market capitalization through years of sound business […]
