Deeply Flawed Economic Models Need To Change
Good discussion here on economic reality. One caveat: when asset managers speak of moving capital from Europe and China to US stocks and ‘more conservative’ sectors as defensive in bear markets, they mean they hope and expect that US equities will drop less than other developing market securities, ie., maybe -50% rather than -70%. Individuals […]
FOMC On Deck, But What Can Resuscitate A Moribund U.S. Dollar?
Tomorrow brings the July FOMC rate decision, and there is no press conference after the statement is released at 2PM ET. Given that the Fed just posed a rate hike, and also taken with the fact that the bank has appeared rather reticent to roll out any ‘new’ information at a non-press conference meeting, and […]
Consumer Confidence Improved In July
The latest Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index was released this morning based on data collected through July 14. The headline number of 121.1 was an increase from the final reading of 117.3 for June, a downward revision from 118.9. Today’s number was above the Investing.com consensus of 116.5. Here is an excerpt from the Conference Board press release. […]
Case-Shiller Home Prices Disappoint But Hit New Record High
Great news ‘Murica – your house has never been worth more than it was in May (according to Case-Shiller’s national home price index). On the slightly less silver-lining side of the equation, April’s 0.28% gain in price was revised to 0.18% MoM drop and May’s point disappointed at just 0.1% rise MoM. The 20-city property values index increased […]
The Pullback That Never Was
3 days of selling of less than one point per day That is what SPX has averaged over the course of the last three days when it finished lower each day – less than one measily point. For the bears that has to be infuriating. I don’t blame them – I would be too, if I […]
Top 5 Things Happening In The Market Today
Top 5 Things to Know Before You Start Trading This Tuesday the market sees a higher JPY while the USD still struggles. Oil and gold are higher. 1 – USD Still Struggling The US dollar (USD) decline slowed yesterday but the overall picture for the US currency didn’t improve. Today’s eco data will probably only be of […]
Pound, Euro Suddenly Surge, Trump Tweets ‘Very Big, Exciting’ Trade Deal With UK
After regaining its footing while bumping around at a 14-month low on Monday, the broad dollar is sliding hard despite rising Treasury yields as the pound and the euro soar. In fact, the dollar is now lower versus all of its G-10 peers except for the yen, which is trading as usual off Treasury yields. […]
Doc Copper: Breakout Of 6-Year Resistance In Play
Below looks at Copper Futures on a monthly basis, since the late 1980’s. A good deal of the past 30-years, Doc Copper has remained inside of rising channel (1), reflecting that the long-term trend is up. The top of this channel was hit back in 2011 and since then, Doc Copper has created a series of lower […]
Stirring The Sentiment Tea Leaves Redux
Despite the Volatility Index (VIX) currently operating at the low end of historical ranges (9.36), the equity markets operate on a perpetual volatility rollercoaster. This period of relative calm has not stopped participants from searching for the Holy Grail of indicators in hopes of determining whether the next large move in the markets is upwards […]
FHFA House Price Index: Real Index Level Last Seen In August 2007
The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) has released its U.S. House Price Index (HPI) for May. Here is the opening of the report: Washington, DC – U.S. house prices rose in May, up 0.4 percent from the previous month, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) seasonally adjusted monthly House Price Index (HPI). The previously reported 0.7 […]
