WTI Crude Oil And Natural Gas Forecast – Monday, July 24
WTI Crude Oil The WTI Crude Oil market initially tried to rally during the day on Friday but found enough resistance at the $47 level. We fell significantly from there, slicing through the $46 handle. It looks very likely that we are going to continue to grind lower, although I recognize that the $45 level […]
European Stocks Fall To 3 Month Lows On “Carmaker Cartel” Fears, Sliding PMIs; US Futures Lower
In a mixed session, which has seen Asian stocks ex-Japan broadly higher, the European Stoxx 600 index dropped as much as 0.6% after data Markit PMI data signalled euro-area economy grew in July at its slowest pace in six months while carmakers extended declines on continued concern about antitrust collusion in the industry. Germany’s DAX […]
EUR/USD: 1.18 Is Upside Target But Positioning & Valuation Warn Of A S/T Pullback – Nordea
EUR/USD made a move to the upside, reaching the highest levels since 2015. What’s next? Here is their view, courtesy of eFXnews: Nordea FX Strategy Research argues that as long as the convergence story between the Euro area and the US remains a story, 1.18 is likely the target for EUR/USD. However, in the near-term, Nordea notes […]
E The Euro Area Economy Continues On A Slow Growth Path
“The European economy continues to grow at a steady pace despite numerous political uncertainties and challenges. For two years, GDP growth has been steady, employment growth has been healthy and unemployment has been receding gradually. In what has been a context of depressed global activity, private consumption has been the main driver of growth, fuelled […]
This Measure Of US Equity Volatility Is At A 22-Year Low
On a range of trends and topics these are unusual times we live in, and stock market volatility is no exception. As a matter of fact, market volatility in general is very low i.e. across asset classes, as discussed in the latest weekly report. Yet here is a somewhat unusual measure of volatility, which is coming […]
How Big Of A Deleveraging Are We Talking About?
Last week, I discussed the issue of debt and why “people buy payments.” This article generated much discussion and several emails including the following. “You argue that rising debt levels lead to slower economic growth, but what if it is slower growth leading to rising debt levels?” This is essentially the “causation” or “correlation” argument which has been a point of contentious […]
EUR/USD: Time For A Downwards Correction
Previous: On Friday, trading on the euro/dollar pair closed up. Trading volumes were high, which was enough to hit a new 52-week high with an empty economic calendar. The euro/dollar rate rose to 1.1683. The general weakness of the US dollar, combined with investor confidence in the reversal of the ECB’s QE program, is pushing […]
Euro Recovers From Softer Flash PMI
The euro made a marginal new high in early Asia, but participants rightly drew cautious ahead of the flash eurozone PMI. The flash PMI was softer than expected, and although the composite fell to six monthly lows, it is more a reflection of how steady it has been at elevated levels. At the same time, it is consistent […]
“It Feels Like An Avalanche”: China’s Crackdown On Conglomerates Has Sent A “Shock Wave” Across Markets
The first to suffer Beijing’s crackdown against China’s private merger-crazy conglomerates, wave was the acquisitive “insurance” behemoth, Anbang, whose CEO Wu Xiaohui briefly disappeared as the Politburo made it clear that the “old way” of money laundering – via offshore deals – is no longer tolerated. Then, several weeks later and shortly after the stocks of […]
USD/JPY Falls To Low Support, Death Cross In Play
The downfall of the dollar continues and today it is quite pronounced in the pair that usually best reflects US developments. USD/JPY is trading just above support at 110.60. The line formed part of the steep uptrend channel that the pair was riding on, all the way to 114.50. When the pair moved out of the channel, […]
