EUR: ECB To Announce Start Of Tapering, Will Avoid Any Surprises
Talking Points: Trading in the Euro will be dominated in the week ahead by Thursday’s meeting of the ECB, which will herald a tightening of Euro-Zone monetary policy at the start of the New Year. Elsewhere, Spanish politics are likely to be ignored. On the data front, attention will center on Euro-Zone purchasing managers’ indexes and the […]
Examining The Most Hated Bull Market Ever
From last week: “The seemingly “impervious” advance since the election last November, has had an interesting “stair step” pattern with each advance commencing from a breakout of a several month 3%-ish consolidation range. Furthermore, each advance then pushes to a 3-standard deviation extreme, black circles, of the 50-dma before beginning the next consolidation trading range.” The last […]
Economic Data And Forecasts For The Weeks Of October 23 And October 30
Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data. Forecast Prior Observation Consensus Week of October 23 October 23 Chicago Fed National Activity Index -0.10% -0.31 -0.10 October 24 PMI Manufacturing Flash Index […]
E VIX In Engulfing Bullish Pattern; SPX Throws Over Cycle Top Resistance
VIX created a bullish engulfing pattern in which the highs and lows exceeded the prior week with a weekly close above last week’s closing high. A buy signal awaits it above Intermediate-term resistance at 10.79, with further confirmation above weekly mid-Cycle resistance at 14.69. It has an inverted Head & Shoulders formation that, when triggered, […]
Greenback’s Recovery Is Intact
The prospect of tax reform and a Fed hike in December, with expectations of more next year, helped lift the dollar broadly last week. Although the Japanese election and ECB meeting lie ahead, the fundamental backdrop for dollar looks constructive.The technical condition is also favorable, especially on the weekly charts. The Dollar Index continues to appear to […]
Saturday Charts – The Longer View
The Long-Term Outlook The ECRI index is pointing higher again after briefly touching the zero-level. This is definitely good news. Here is a basic look at the US stock market. Lately I have been using these simple charts to guide me. Here is another basic chart. It does have the look of a […]
Here Are 2 Warning Signs For The World’s Top Shale Play
A lot of activity the past few days in Pennsylvania: home of the Marcellus shale, arguably the world’s best-performing unconventional natural gas and liquids play right now. And it looks like things could get more complicated for drillers here going forward. Partly on the financial front, with a special committee of the Pennsylvania House passing […]
EIU On Institutions And Time Horizons
With the sponsorship of Franklin Templeton, The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) has surveyed 143 investing institutions in North America (part of the global sample of 571) in order to study recent shifts in their portfolio allocation, especially with an eye to the risks that concern them and the length of their time horizon. In an […]
Bitcoin At Record High; Breaches $6,000 Level
The world’s most famous digital currency, Bitcoin, reached another milestone on Saturday following the rumour of cash shortage in Zimbabwe and an increase in margin trading. The cryptocurrency rose above $6,000 for the first time on Friday before peaking at $6,147 a coin on Saturday. So far, the cryptocurrency has gained more than 600 percent […]
Natural Gas Stuck With Uncertain November Forecasts
Natural gas prices were able to rally decently Friday off of more cold weather risk in the medium-term (and a bit more in the long-term, too) but they now appear stuck right between resistance and support, making trading on Monday especially important. The prompt month chart below shows how they bounced off the 30-DMA today. […]
