Big Blue Blasts Dow To (Another) New Record High As Chinese Yield Curve Inverts
Don’t fight The Fed or The Machines… Video length: 00:04:05 The Dow is now the 2nd most overbought in 22 years… 3rd most overbought in 62 years Kicking off The National Congress last night, Xi’s words did not manage to inspire the bond market as China’s yield curve inverted once again… But thanks to Big Blue’s […]
Flattening Curve: Ticking Clock On This Over-Extended Cycle
As the stock market parties like it’s early 2000, a historically reliable indicator of economic weakness, the yield curve, continues to raise alarm in North America. The spread between 2 and 10 -year US Treasury yields reached a new cycle low of .75 this week, and in Canada .51. As show below in my partner […]
Fed Says Economic Activity Increased In September Through October
The Federal Reserve says in its latest Beige Book, “Reports from all 12 Federal Reserve Districts indicated that economic activity increased in September through early October, with the pace of growth split between modest and moderate. The Richmond, Atlanta, and Dallas Districts reported major disruptions from Hurricanes Harvey and Irma in some areas and sectors, […]
Fed Chair Pick To Be Made In 2 Weeks
Small Caps Stall The stock market was mixed on Tuesday. One of the new trends we’re seeing is weakness from the Russell 2000 which was down 0.34% on Tuesday. It’s now down 7 of the last 10 days. Even with that weakness it’s off less than 1% from its peak. This was to be expected given the […]
Housing Starts And The Economic Cycle – Wednesday, October 18
Wednesday’s data on Housing Starts and Building Permits disappointed consensus expectations, and while some of the declines can be chalked up to the hurricanes in the South we would note that Starts in both the Northeast and Midwest regions also showed declines. One silver lining to this month’s data was that in both the cases […]
Weekly Heating Oil Prices
We’ve used data based on the Energy Information Administration (EIA), which publishes price data weekly on home heating oil in 38 states by dollar-per-gallon before taxes. Unlike natural gas and electricity, home heating oil is provided by independent retailers. The latest price of home heating oil nationwide is $2.66, down less than a penny from last week. […]
Invest In Well Defined Behavior
“Davidson” submits: You can’t forecast what you cannot see…or can you? People are more predictable than things. Investing is a process which must look through a fog of unknown using past experience. Many use mathematical trend analysis to forecast the future and provide forecasts with date and penny precision. But, how does one forecast inventions […]
Cryptocurrencies Are Non-Financial Collective Equity
One of the troubles with understanding the cryptocurrency boom is that the existing definitions aren’t consistent. We call all of these things “currencies”, but that implies that they are all money which is incorrect. For instance, Filecoin is basically a decentralized version of Dropbox. It isn’t a currency at all. It has an exchange value, […]
October 2017 Beige Book: Reading Between The Lines – Rate Of Economic Expansion Unchanged
The consolidated economic report from the 12 Federal Reserve Districts (Beige Book) stated “activity increased in September through early October, with the pace of growth split between modest and moderate”. The previous report stated “expanded at a modest to moderate pace across all twelve Federal Reserve Districts in July and August“. Analyst Opinion of this […]
A Cloud Over Housing
In September builders started fewer homes than the month before, which means the peak this year was in June, and since then housing starts have been falling. September fell 4.7% from August. Still they were higher by 6.1% from a year ago so not all is dire. It is a concern that this is the […]
