Playing The Part In NAFTA Negotiations
As the fourth round of NAFTA negotiations comes to an end, the agreement’s survival has once again been brought into question. US President Donald Trump has threatened to strike a new deal with just Canada. Mexico downplayed the threat, saying it would walk away from negotiations if the new terms brought by the US put […]
China And Reflation
Chinese PPI inflation picked up further in September, accelerating to 6.9% (6.3% previous, and consensus). It forms part of a trend that we have seen in China towards higher generalized inflation. We’re also seeing PPI inflation accelerating in the less commodity driven sectors, so it’s not entirely a commodity story. Likewise, non-food CPI inflation has been running […]
Aluminum Is The Surprise Bull Market Of The Year
Unlike base metals like zinc or copper, there isn’t a supply problem with aluminum, per se. That is, aluminum is a plentiful metal. Bauxite, aluminum ore, is the primary source of aluminum. It’s nearly all that remains when you weather granite mountains into clay. Bauxite is common in the tropics. According to the U.S. Geological Survey, there are […]
What Do The Bulls Have Here?
Any kind of strength whether it is by a gap higher or intraday rally, immediately gets sold off. We’ve seen it almost every day now over the last seven trading sessions. Throughout the past week, I was adding and subtracting positions. I was booking profits in Nvidia (NVDA) for 4%, and Olin Corp (OLN) for 5.2%, while adding new positions like Ferrari (RACE) and Lam […]
NAFTA Worries Take Toll, Yellen’s Best Guess Supports Greenback
In a relatively quiet week for economic data, except for the UK, we suggested that politics may trump economics. Today, the Canadian dollar is the weakest of the major currencies, losing about 0.5%, while the Mexican peso is the poorest performer among emerging market currencies, losing closer to 1%. The move began last week. Over the […]
Richard Sylla: 70% To 80% Chance Of Another Global Financial Crisis
When Janet Yellen, Chairman of the US Federal Reserve, said in June that she does not expect another financial crisis in our lifetime, eyebrows were raised. None more so than Richard Sylla’s. Sylla, a professor emeritus at the Stern School of Business and co-author with Sydney Homer of the magisterial A History of Interest Rates, has studied […]
Morgan Stanley Says Sell Omnicom As ‘New Normal’ Not Good For Ad Agencies
Shares of Omnicom (OMC) are sliding after Morgan Stanley analyst Benjamin Swinburne downgraded the stock to Underweight, the firm’s equivalent to a sell rating, as he contends that “lower for longer is the new normal” for advertising agencies. The analyst also cut his price target on peer Interpublic Group (IPG), while nothing he disagrees with […]
Investment Banks Goldman Sachs And Morgan Stanley Round Out Big Banks Reporting Season Tomorrow
(Photo Credit: Fortune Live Media) Investment banks Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley will be reporting their quarterly earnings tomorrow morning. Here’s a look at how they are predicted to fare for Q3. Goldman Sachs (GS) Financials – Capital Markets | Reports October 17, BMO After a steady end to 2016 and first quarter of 2017, Goldman Sachs’ […]
Iraq-Kurd Tensions Push Oil Prices Higher
Crude oil extended gains on Monday after Iraqi forces captured a military base, oil fields and an airport outside Kirkuk in the Northern part of Iraq. Brent crude oil rose 1.5 percent to $58.02 a barrel on Monday as at 1:45 p.m. Nigerian time. While, West Texas Intermediate gained 1.2 percent to $52.06 a barrel. […]
Can We Have An ETF Meltdown?
What is the magic that allows us to have intraday liquidity through an ETF on a market that itself trades more or less by appointment? Case in point: the high yield bond market. Or emerging markets. Or just about any bond market short of sovereigns and maybe agencies. Suppose there is a sudden rush for […]
