The Great Reckoning For Policymakers’ Failures Has Begun
Next week, I will publish my annual Budget Outlook, covering the 2018-2020 period. The aim, as always, will be to challenge conventional wisdom when this seems to be heading in the wrong direction. Before publishing the new Outlook each year, I always like to review my previous forecast. Past performance may not be a perfect […]
Netflix: Volatility King
With 3Q earnings reporting underway this seems this like a good time to update and expand upon Digest Issue 39 “Volatility Kings 3Q 2017 [Charts]” with another look at Netflix (NFLX) scheduled to report after the close today. First a brief market review. S&P 500 Index (SPX) 2553.17 advanced 3.84 points or +.15% for the week after making a new […]
US Dollar Erases Gains As Euro And Commodity Currencies Recover
The US dollar index erased October’s strong trading gains and fell below its key 200-week moving average last week, as a less dovish than expected FOMC Meeting Minutes and worse than expected US inflation data pushed the greenback lower. Inside the Fed Minutes, Federal Reserve officials reiterated that they saw the US economy expanding at […]
WTI Crude Oil And Natural Gas Forecast – Monday, Oct. 16
WTI Crude Oil The WTI Crude Oil market rallied on Friday, breaking the top of the hammer that formed on Thursday, which of course bounced off the psychologically important $50 level. For me, the signals that we are ready to go higher. I think eventually we will go looking towards the $53 level, but I […]
Who Will Be The Next Fed Chief – And Why It Matters
Janet Yellen’s term is ending at the Federal Reserve. With new appointments, President Trump can indirectly shape US monetary policy for years to come – for better or worse. Serving as the “epitome of calm,” Fed chief Ben Bernanke responded to the global financial crisis by cutting the federal funds rate to zero and initiating […]
The Fading Scent Of The American Dream
We live in a simulacrum society in which the fading scent of the American Dream is more a collective memory kept alive for political purposes than a reality. Even more disturbing, the difference between a phantom prosperity (or in homage to the Blade Runner film series, shall we say a replicant prosperity?) and real prosperity has been blurred by layers of […]
AUDUSD Daily Analysis – Monday, Oct. 16
AUDUSD broke above 0.7875 key resistance, indicating that the downtrend from 0.8124 had completed at 0.7732 already. A further rally would likely be seen in the coming days and next target would be at 0.7986. Support is located at the rising trend line on the 4-hour chart, only a clear break below the trend line […]
EUR/USD Testing Wave 4 Fibonacci Support At 1.18
EUR/USD 4 hour The EUR/USD is challenging a resistance trend line (orange). A bullish breakout could see price challenge the larger resistance (red) but it remains unclear whether the price is in a wave 5 or in an expanded wave 4 at the moment. The 1-hour chart, however, could provide more guidance about that aspect. […]
GBP/USD Ticks Up On Effort To Reignite Brexit Talks
UK Prime Minister Theresa May is heading to Brussels in an effort to unblock Brexit talks. The acrimony between her Brexit Minister David Davis and the chief EU negotiator Michel Barnier was clear last week. Barnier said the talks reached a deadlock. May will be joined by Davis and Barnier will be joined by Jean-Claude Junker. […]
Two Option Investments For An Expensive Market
U.S. market valuations have now reached what they were in 1929, and are therefore the second highest in the country’s history. Only the Dotcom Bubble was higher. Currently: The cyclically-adjusted price-to-earnings (CAPE) ratio of the S&P 500 is over 31. The average S&P 500 price-to-book value is 3.25, compared to only 2.00 in 2012. The […]
