RecessionAlert Weekly Leading Index Update – Friday, July 14
The latest index reading came in at 23.2, down from the previous week. The RecessionAlert Twitter Feed, @RecessionAlert2, had an interesting observation about the indicator levels in February. RecessionAlert has launched an alternative to ECRI’s Weekly Leading Index Growth indicator (WLIg). The Weekly Leading Economic Index (WLEI) uses fifty different time series from these categories: Corporate Bond Composite, Treasury […]
Ethereum ETF? The Bitcoin Crushing Digital Currency Explained
Bitcoin and Ether have garnered a lot of attention this year due to explosive surge in prices as also extreme volatility. Ether or etherum had surged to about $400 in June, up almost 5,000% from $8 in January. This week, it fell to below $200, down more than 50% from the recent high but still […]
Global Bond Market Breakdown
After the big reflation reset in positioning, global bond markets are showing more signs of breaking down. We previously talked in detail about the idea of the reflation reset in the context of a decent global growth and inflation outlook which would likely set the scene for growth assets to outperform defensive/incomeassets. Now we are beginning to see […]
The Short-Term Uptrend Continues
The short-term uptrend continues, and I am not fighting it. All my shorts were covered a few days ago, and I put a bit of cash back into the market when the new uptrend flashed. Cramer has been mentioning that prices are being pushed higher by all the investors who are reluctantly long the market. […]
ECRI’s WLI Growth Index Rate Slowing Continues
ECRI’s WLI Growth Index which forecasts economic growth six months forward remains in positive territory for over one year – after spending the previous 35 consecutive weeks in negative territory. This is compared to RecessionAlerts similar weekly leading index. Also ECRI released their inflation index. Analyst Opinion of the trends of the weekly leading indices […]
16 Firms Going Ex-Dividend Next Week, Including Clorox, Oracle And Ford Motor Company
There are several well known large cap stocks going ex-dividend next week including the following three Top 100 Dividend Stocks: Oracle Corp., Ford Motor Company, and CVS Health Corp. Ex-dividend dates are important to dividend investors because one must own a stock on its ex-dividend date in order to be eligible to receive its next dividend. Any stock ranked […]
BLS Reports Net Negative Inflation For 5 Months: Anyone Believe That?
Today the BLS reported the CPI was flat. The Econoday consensus was for a 0.1% rise. Over the last five months, the CPI is -0.1%. Over the last four months, the CPI is -0.2%. In what is one of the very weakest 4-month stretch in 60 years of records, core consumer prices could manage only a 0.1 percent increase in June. […]
Revisiting Saudi Arabia
In May of last year I was attempting to figure out if there was an asymmetric play to be had in the land of sand and black gloop. There were a lot of moving pieces to deal with. I think it’s worth revisiting but first it’s worth reviewing what I thought just over a year […]
The Big Four Economic Indicators: Industrial Production Rose 0.4% In June
Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which they base their decisions. This committee statement is about as close as they get to identifying their method. There is, however, a general belief that there are four big indicators that the committee weighs […]
JPMorgan Warns S&P Faces Large “Negative Gamma”, Could Exaggerate Any Drop Next Week
Earlier in the week we noted the ‘odd’ surge in downside protection demand even as tech stocks were soaring, and now JPMorgan is noting the S&P has shifted to a large ‘negative gamma’ underhang which “could boost volatility if we were to sell off.” As Bloomberg notes, options markets suggest a lack of confidence in the rally. Traders are piling into […]
