The Problem With The ECB’s Concern Over The Weak Dollar: The Dollar Isn’t Weak
The New York Times told readers this morning that the European Central Bank (ECB) would like to cut back on its quantitative easing program but is reluctant to do so because of the weak dollar. The piece notes that a weak dollar reduces the euro zone’s trade surplus with the United States. Also by making low-cost imports […]
How To Value REITs: A Step-By-Step Guide
Real estate investment trusts – or REITs, for short – give investors the opportunity to experience the economic benefits of owning real estate without any of the day-to-day hassles associated with being a traditional landlord. For these reasons, REITs can make appealing investments for long-term investors looking to benefit from the income and appreciation of […]
Late Season Central US Dryness Could Trim Corn & Bean Crops
Market Analysis With the USDA’s next crop & supply/demand reports on September 12, the ongoing dryness in a large portion of the Central US has many concerned about a possible slide in the size of US corn & soybean crops. Last month’s Midwest Crop Tour began this trend when their field checks didn’t seem to […]
The Limited Exposure Of The US Economy To Trade
Listening to complaints about the effects of globalization on the US economy, one might be tempted to believe that the US economy is more exposed to the pressures of global trade than most other countries, and that the US market is uniquely open to world trade. countries. But these beliefs are not true. A common […]
Mutiny “For” The Bounty?
China recently announced they will trade oil for yuan “backed” by gold. The story has gotten some press (none of it mainstream mind you), and many have questions as to what it really means. While quite complicated as a whole, when you break this down into pieces I believe it is a quite simple and logical […]
September 2017 Initial Unemployment Claims Rolling Average Significantly Worsens – Thank Hurricane Harvey
This week we have the Hurricane Harvey affect. The market expectations for weekly initial unemployment claims (from Bloomberg / Econoday) were 235 K to 246 K (consensus 239,000), and the Department of Labor reported 298,000 new claims. The more important (because of the volatility in the weekly reported claims and seasonality errors in adjusting the […]
Copper, Oil, Gold And US Stocks: Big Picture Status
Sometimes I like to trot these lumbering monthlies out so we can quiet everything down and see where various markets are slowly heading. First of all, as I go down with my ‘strengthening US dollar’ ship*, I also mal-projected copper’s upside. I’d felt that $3/lb. would cap Doctor Copper because it is very clear lateral […]
Market Valuation, Inflation And Treasury Yields: Clues From The Past – Thursday, September 7
Note: The charts in this commentary have been updated to include the latest monthly data. Our monthly market valuation updates have long had the same conclusion: US stock indexes are significantly overvalued, which suggests cautious expectations on investment returns. In a “normal” market environment — one with conventional business cycles, Federal Reserve policy, interest rates and inflation — […]
It’s Falling Apart: Yields Hit YTD Lows, Stocks Fall As Reality Sinks In
Ok, it’s all falling apart now. As Bloomberg notes, “10Y futs just rose more than 10 ticks on heavy volume with the price topping the earlier session high 127-13 [while] S&P futures are continuing to pare gains from the cash open.” It looks like between jitters about Hurricane Irma, a sense that another ICBM launch […]
Brexit Blues
The UK parliament has reconvened after its summer recess, but negotiations between representatives of the EU and the UK have been taking place with the aim of settling the financial obligations that the UK owes the bloc; the rights of EU citizens in the UK post Brexit and those of their counterparts living in EU […]
