US 10-Year/3-Month Treasury Spread Falls To Nine-Year Low
The yield difference on the benchmark 10-year Treasury Note less the 3-month T-bill fell to 1.03 percentage points on Wednesday (Sep. 6), the lowest since Jan. 2008, according to daily data published by Treasury.gov. The latest dip pushed the spread below the previous post-recession low of 1.08 set in July. The widely followed 10-year/2-year spread (red line […]
‘Sorry, But It’s Crazy’ – Riksbank Decision And The Policymaker Paradox
As noted in our week ahead preview, the Riksbank faced a rather daunting task headed into today’s rate decision. Obviously, they have to exercise caution. They’re effectively beholden to whatever the ECB does. As Governor Stefan Ingves told Bloomberg earlier this year, “when you are next to an elephant, you have to be careful.” Simply put: they need to […]
E Stock Market Bubble Now Largest Of Past 100 Years
Context plays a vital role in the development of reliable market forecasts. Short-term price behavior only has meaning when analyzed in the proper context afforded by the long-term view, so all investing and trading strategies should begin with a thorough understanding of the big picture. The cyclical bull market in stocks that began in early […]
Consumer Credit & The American Conundrum
What to do? This is not as an innocuous question as one might think. For most American families, who have to balance their living standards to their income, they face this conundrum each and every month. Today, more than ever, the walk to the end of the driveway has become a dreaded thing as bills […]
All Eyes On Draghi: Futures Flat, Euro Surges, Dollar Slides; Yuan Breaches 6.50
S&P futures are flat, still spooked by the WSJ’s report that Gary Cohn will not be the next Fed chair, while both European stocks and Asian shares gain in a overnight session on edge in which everyone is looking forward to today’s main risk event: the ECB meeting and Draghi press conference due in under […]
AUD/USD Elliott Wave View: Bullish Above 0.787
AUD/USD Short Term Elliott Wave view suggests that the rally from the 8/15 low is unfolding as a double three Elliott Wave structure. Up from the 8/15 low, Minute wave ((w)) ended at 0.79957 and Minute wave ((x)) ended at 0.7868. Minute wave ((y)) is in progress and the subdivision also unfolds as a double three. Minutte wave […]
ECB Preview: Are Tapering Expectations Overcooked? EUR Strength Presents Risks
Economy & ECB Fuel EUR Rally EUR has been soaring higher over recent months as consistently strong data out of the eurozone, and a more constructive tone from the ECB have encouraged the market view that the ECB will be winding down its QE program sooner rather than later. At their summer meeting, the ECB […]
EUR/USD: 5 Reasons Why Draghi Won’t Likley Talk Down EUR In A Meaningful Way – ANZ
The European Central Bank is about to make its decision and it seems that the euro cannot wait. EUR/USD is advancing towards 1.20. Can it continue higher? Here is their view, courtesy of eFXnews: ANZ FX Strategy Research argues that that there are 5 reasons to be skeptical that President Draghi will address euro strength head-on in […]
ECB Focus For Sure, But Not Only Game In Town
The US dollar is trading broadly lower. The ECB meeting looms large. Many, like ourselves, expected that when Draghi said in July that the asset purchases would be revisited in the fall, took it to mean, after the summer recess, not a legalistic definition of when fall begins. Still, there have been some reports, citing unnamed sources close to the ECB, that have […]
EUR/USD And GBP/USD Forecast – Thursday, Sept. 7
EUR/USD The EUR/USD pair tried to rally during the day on Wednesday but sold-off slightly as we await words from Mario Draghi about the currency itself. I think that the 1.20 level above is massively resistive, but if we can break above the top of the shooting star from last month, I think the market […]
