Market Internals Have Already Reversed
The market internals are already signaling that a long term bottom has been completed. At some point we will get a corrective move. When we do, it will clear the overbought conditions and the market will then be set up to test the all-time highs in May. The NYA summation index is making higher highs […]
WTI Crude Oil And Natural Gas Forecast – April 5, 2016
WTI Crude Oil The WTI grade of oil initially tried to rally during the day on Monday, but turned right back around to slide through the $36 handle. This of course is a negative sign, and the market should then reach towards the $34 level in my estimation. I believe that short-term rallies continue to […]
Yen Surges To Multi-Month Peak On Investor Worries
The Japanese Yen earlier hit a 17-month peak versus the US Dollar after yet another decline in oil prices sent FX traders rushing into the proverbial arms of safe-haven assets. Analysts have pointed out, however, that while the Yen is a traditional safe-haven currency, fears of an intervention by the Bank of Japan mean that […]
When The Doves Don’t Cry
Yellen hit the dollar hard with her dovishness and might do that soon. Why did she go there? We continue with analyzing the fresh figures coming out of the US and preview the upcoming events. Yellen’s Dovefest: A few of Yellen’s statements were surprisingly dovish and her worries seemed exaggerated. Did she try to hit the […]
China’s Middle Class Will Fork Over $1 Trillion For This Must-Have Service By 2020
Global investors are concerned about the undeniable slowdown in the Chinese economy, but that obsessive focus on bottom-line economic growth means that people are missing out. You see, there are immense shifts underway in China right now. The economy is maturing, and a recognizable middle class –already larger than the United States’ at 109 million people […]
Think Half Of A Cycle Ahead
Financial markets are trendy and noisy in the short-run, sensible in the long-run, and perverse in the intermediate-term. What do I mean? Something like this: short-run movements are news-driven, and driven by people trying to catch up with the latest data. Many people imitate the behavior of others, and over the intermediate-term, some stock prices get out […]
U.S. Job Creation Remains Strong
The reversals that the major US stock markets suffered in the first weeks of the year have largely been reversed now. The currency has fallen against the Yen and Sterling, but appreciated against Sterling over the first quarter – Sterling has slumped against all major currencies on concerns over a possible “Brexit”. The growth in […]
Trading The DFMGI Index
The DFMGI features 36 members, and midday on Monday 4 April 2016 the index featured 20 members up and 4 members down. The index has a year to date return of 7.22% and a 1-year return of -3.29%. On Monday, 4 April, the index closed at 3,378.54 for a gain of 2.28% or 75.31 points […]
EUR/USD And GBP/USD Forecast – April 5, 2016
EUR/USD The EUR/USD pair fell initially during the course of the day on Monday, but then turned right back around to form a hammer. The hammer of course is a very positive sign, and as a result it is a market that will continue to grind its way higher. The 1.14 level begins a significant […]
Two U.S. Labor Market Indexes Predict Slower Employment Growth
Job growth in March posted a solid gain, inspiring a new round of upbeat comments on the outlook for U.S. payrolls and the economy generally. But newly minted numbers for two multi-factor measures of the labor market hint at a weakening trend. In contrast with the upbeat message in the latest data for payrolls, broadly defined benchmarks of the […]
