Durable Goods In July; Rinse, Repeat
The Census Bureau reported today updated estimates for Durable Goods in July 2017. Quite frankly, nothing has changed so minimal commentary is all that is required. The aircraft anomaly from last month faded, leaving total new orders of $229.2 billion (seasonally-adjusted). That is less than in May before the Boeing surge, and less even than […]
Recapping Yellen’s Comments At Jackson Hole And Looking Past Labor Day
Chris Temple joins me today to recap Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen’s comments from Jackson Hole. She did not provide any update on forward guidance for the Fed but did defend the central banks policy since the financial crisis. Since nothing has changed in this respect we then look to past labor day and the potential […]
5 Quality ETFs And Stocks For Outperformance
The stock market has been exhibiting volatility in the past few weeks. While geopolitical tensions, renewed fears over the implementation of President Donald Trump’s pro-growth agenda, an uncertain Fed policy and high stock valuations are weighing on the stocks, strong corporate earnings, and improving health of economies around the world act as tailwinds. This is […]
Durable Goods New Orders Slows In July 2017?
The headlines say the durable goods new orders declined. However, the unadjusted three month rolling average improved. Analyst Opinion of the Durable Goods Situation Our analysis is more postitive than the headlines as we see improvement this month. Civilian aircraft were the main headwind this month. If one removes aircraft – this is a stronger […]
Durable Goods Orders Decline 6.8% Led By Aircraft
Huge surges and declines in aircraft orders have made for extremely volatile durable goods orders lately. Last month aircraft orders surged 227 percent, this month aircraft orders plunged 82 percent. Last month aircraft orders surged 227 percent, this month aircraft orders plunged 82 percent. Amidst this volatility, the Econoday consensus estimate of -5.8% was reasonably close to […]
Large Decline In Bullish Investor Sentiment
This week’s AAII Sentiment Survey reported a 6.1% decline in bullish investor sentiment to 28.1%. The bullish sentiment level is now near one standard deviation below the long term average. Nearly all of the decline in the bullish sentiment showed up in the bearish number which increased 5.5%. The bull/bear spread is now -10.4 percentage points. […]
It’s Official: Copper Price Breaks Out
The price of copper is breaking out. We wrote recently that investors should wait for the Ultimate Confirmation Of A New Bull Market In Copper, and we identified $3.00 as the ultimate breakout point. As copper is blasting through $3.00 now it seems we are getting that confirmation. Note there is always this possibility of a false breakout. It […]
Ulta Drops As Sales Growth Slows Amid Amazon, Department Store Competition
Shares of Ulta Beauty (ULTA) plunged in early trading after reporting quarterly comparable sales that declined from last year. Ulta’s report comes as department stores are discounting high-end cosmetics and as consumers shift to shopping online and away from physical stores. EARNINGS: After the market close on Thursday, Ulta reported second quarter earnings per share […]
Dollar Drops On Yellen’s Jackson Hole Remarks; Highlights
Developing… It doesn’t look like there’s much in Yellen’s remarks regarding whether or to what extent the Fed would step in to address risks to financial stability. Further, I’m not seeing a whole lot here that has the potential to alter anyone’s views on balance sheet timing or the trajectory of policy normalization, but maybe […]
All Eyes On Jackson Hole
With this being one of the last Friday’s of the summer vacation season, we can probably expect trading volumes to remain light today. But make no mistake about it; all eyes will be on Jackson Hole this morning where both Janet Yellen and Mario Draghi are slated to speak. The key here is that Fed […]
