Just In Time For April Fools!
Quite a few years ago a blogger wrote an April Fools post about 100X levered ETFs. It was pretty good and fooled quite a few people. I tried to find it but had no luck. I thought about writing a jokey post announcing some sort of outlandish suite of ETFs. We’ve kicked this sort of […]
Goodbye The Quarter From Hell
Good riddance! I’m never eating at THAT restaurant again! That’s all I can say about the completion of the first quarter of 2016. Talk about an e.coli of a quarter! It was the worst quarter in hedge fund history. Bodies will be washing up on the beach for months. Back-to-back we saw both the worst […]
BLS Jobs Situation Improved In March 2016. Weakness In Economically Intuitive Sectors
The BLS job situation headlines looked good. Jobs growth accelerated this month on the back of last month’s downwardly revised data. Economic intuitive sectors were mixed. The rate of growth for employment accelerated this month (red line on graph below). Unadjusted Non-Farm Private Employment – Year-over-Year Change (blue bars – left axis) and Year-over-Year Growth […]
April Fools In March
It may be almost impossible to underestimate the gullibility of professional Fed watchers. At least Lucy van Pelt needed to place an actual football on the ground to fool poor Charlie Brown. But in today’s high stakes game of Federal Reserve mind reading, the Fed doesn’t even have to make a halfway convincing bluff to […]
E From A Macro Perspective
From a macro perspective – we’re experiencing an S&P topping formation that may or may not turn ‘south’ rapidly, or persist in a distribution process. After all that’s happened in the past year-and-a-half, it is again dangerously extended. During this time we’ve had some marvelous moves outlined, primarily biased to the downside (solely on spikes […]
Weekend Reading: Bulls Vs Bears – Who Will WIn
As March marked the beginning of spring, the bulls were stampeded by a “perfect storm” of Central Bank actions. From the ECB dropping rates into negative territory and launching a bigger “quantitative easing” program, to the Federal Reserve backing off its plans to hike interest rates this year, the “accommodative support” gave the bulls the clearance they needed to pile back […]
Gartmaned Again
It’s just heartbreaking… and the ES has flown higher from even where this graph represents. Incredible. Yellen has nothing on this guy.
Today’s Trading Plan: Playing Bulls For Fools
Technical Outlook: One of the most volatile quarters ever ended on a quiet note yesterday pulling back ever so slightly. Today’s morning weakness is looking at a respectable gap down. These gaps downs how been difficult for the bears to do anything with, often times leading to eventual, same-day, market rallies. Last April had a fairly significant […]
E The Daily Shot And Data – April 1, 2016
Greetings, We begin with China where the latest reports suggest that the nation’s economic growth may have bottomed for now. 1. China’s official manufacturing PMI beat consensus, showing slight growth (PMI > 50). 2. The China Caixin Manufacturing PMI also beat expectations. Here is a quote from Caixin on the latest results. Source: Markit/Caixin 3. China’s […]
ISM Manufacturing PMI Beats With 51.8 – USD Looking Better
It’s a winning streak for US indicators today, on April Fool’s Day. The ISM Manufacturing PMI beats expectations quite nicely with 51.8 points. Prices provide an even bigger beat with 51.5 against 42 expected. However, employment is down to 48.1 points, worse than last time, but we already know that manufacturing jobs are poor and that […]
