Credit Spreads: The Real Sentiment Indicator?
We’ve followed the small business optimism and consumer sentiment indicators as a good barometer for the “mood” around the economy. However these aren’t always great predictors of future economic growth. Since the economy and markets rose quite substantially over the last few years, even though these sentiment indicators have been below their historical averages for […]
Is Selling Gold Right Now A Mistake?
Image Source: Pexels Producer prices came in hotter than expected in November. This came on the heels of a CPI report showing price inflation is sticky.With inflation worries mounting, investors sold gold.Wait. People sold an inflation hedge with increasing signs of inflation? Yes. You read that correctly.We’ve returned to a market dynamic that dominated 2023. Investors worried about sticky […]
If You Thought Grocery Prices Were High, Wait For Mass Deportation
Wages for farm workers and food processing will likely rise, if the past is any guide.Figure 1: Farm worker wage, 2023$ (blue, left log scale), and share of civilian employment foreign born (tan, right scale), both s.a. NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. iFarm worker wage seasonally adjusted by author using X-13, deflated using CPI-U. […]
What Poor Breadth Means For The Stock Market
Image Source: Pexels We are in a seasonally bullish period for the stock market, and every business news channel is currently telling viewers to “get in before you miss out”. What they fail to say is that you need to look at market indicators before you do. The market’s poor breadth is particularly useful to guide […]
NGDP Guardrails: Do The Right Thing
Image Source: Pexels Tyler Cowen recent asked o1 Pro this question: What is the biggest problem with the idea of the Fed subsidizing an NGDP futures market, as economist Scott Sumner has proposed? Feel free to give an answer relying on theoretical macroeconomics, agency problems, finance theory, and the like. Here’s part of the response: One of […]
Semiconductor Index Mini-Breakout
All markets enjoyed a bright day – even the Russell 2000 (IWM) – although the last hour of trading saw some comeback across the indices. Best of the action came from the Semiconductor Index (SOX). Friday’s gains were enough to see the index close above all key moving averages. Today’s trading saw the index close […]
Nasdaq 100 Shakeup: 3 Stocks That Can Gain
Image courtesy of 123rf.com Investors like to see capital-allocation hierarchies, and Nasdaq-100 (NDX) is one of them. Year-to-date, this index grew by 32%, capturing the performance of the 100 largest non-financial firms. Nearly 60% of Nasdaq 100 companies are from the IT sector, dominated by Apple at 8.85% weight, closely followed by Microsoft, Nvidia, Broadcom, Amazon, Meta Platforms, and […]
S&P Israel 100 Index: Reflecting Israel’s Potential
The Israeli stock market has a unique landscape, offering stability and liquidity comparable to other well-established markets, while also providing regional diversification as the only developed market in the Middle East. In recent years, Israel has been a spotlight for technology and innovation, hosting many high-tech companies from industries like cybersecurity, biotechnology and software development. […]
Silver Chartbook – Bullish Wedge Limits Remaining Downside
Image Source: Pixabay As the dust has settled after the US election, market dynamics are shifting focus towards monetary policy decisions and ongoing geopolitical tensions. Silver Chartbook – Bullish wedge limits remaining downside.An exceptionally successful year for precious metals is drawing to a close. The price of gold has risen impressively by 30.9% in USD terms. Silver […]
Why Is The Fed Cutting Rates? Value In The Dating App Stocks, Homebuilders Breaking Down
The Fed is going to cut rates a quarter point on Wednesday – but it shouldn’t and it doesn’t seem like it wants to. The stock market is at all time highs, Bitcoin is over $100,000 and inflation remains stubbornly above the Fed’s 2% target. Trump’s illegal immigration crackdown and tariffs – while correct from a long […]
