Trade Of The Year – Part II
<< Read Part I: A Short History Of The Post-WWII Oil price, From A Technical Perspective Is the Economy at the cusp of the next recession? Or maybe worse? Part II takes a look at the macroeconomic backdrop for the trade of the year. Spoiler alert- it’s not a pretty picture, but don’t think doom and […]
How Likely Is It That Both Stocks & Bonds Would Both Go Into A Bear Market At The Same Time?
Won’t bonds correlate with stocks in a bear market next time round with rates at historically low levels and likely to go up? Written by Ben Carlson (awealthofcommonsense.com) That is a good question but before getting to my thoughts on how likely it is that both stocks and bonds crater together, let’s look at the historical track record of a […]
HH The Philippine Peso Squeeze
In the first quarter, the Philippine peso depreciated against the US dollar. Internationally, this was attributed to President Duterte’s policies. In reality, it has a lot to do with the expected US rate hikes. But there is a reason why misguided geopolitics now overshadows Philippines. In the recent quarter, the Philippine peso depreciated by 0.88 […]
Gold Slips On Profit Taking
Gold prices edged lower on Monday as investors took profits from a recent rally that pushed the market to the highest level in five months. U.S. stock markets reversed some of the steep losses witnessed last week, making gold less attractive. Gold’s surge last week was fueled by heightened geopolitical risks and President Donald Trump’s […]
The Bear’s Lair: How Do We Fix Finance?
National Economic Council Director Gary Cohn, formerly President of Goldman Sachs, startled markets last week by suggesting that the United States should re-impose the Glass-Steagall division between commercial and investment banking. That is probably desirable on balance, but the U.S. and global financial system was already a mess when Glass-Steagall was removed in 1999. We […]
Gold Elliott Wave View: Pullback Completed
Short term Elliott Wave view in Gold (XAU/USD) suggests that cycle from 4/10 low (1246.92) is unfolded as an impulse Elliott wave structure where Minute wave ((i)) ended at 1257.2, Minute wave (ii) ended at 1250.8, Minute wave (iii) ended at 1279.75, Minute wave (iv) ended at 1271.69 and Minute wave (v) of (a) ended at yesterday’s peak 1295.6. […]
After ‘Modest’ 250% S&P Returns, Corporate Pension Funding Levels Roughly Same As 2008
We spend a lot of time writing about public pensions because the aggregate underfunding levels, $3 – $5 trillion on the low end, are simply staggering and at some point they will be realized for the ponzi schemes that they are and the systemic risk they represent to the global financial system. Until then we’ll […]
The Recent Market’s Strongest Stocks: Utilities, REITs…and Homebuilders
Sellers once again lost their advantage as the S&P 500 (SPY) came roaring right back from its ugliest close since the U.S. Presidential election. The bullishness on the day was on full display with the number of new all-time highs well out-pacing new all-time lows by 181 to 79. While the S&P 500 still has to prove itself […]
Euro, Commodity Dollars May Suffer As Yen Gains On France Election
Worries about the nearing first round of the French presidential election may preoccupy investors as European markets return after the Easter Monday holiday. The leading four candidates are clustered near the 20 percent support mark, making it unusually difficult to divine who might move on to the second round after an initial poll in April 23. The […]
Assessing China’s Economic Risks
First quarter GDP in China rose 6.9%, better than expected and above the government’s target (6.5%) for 2017. It stands to reason, however, that if Communist officials thought they could get 6.9% to last for the whole year they would have made it their target, especially since 6.5% would be less than the GDP growth […]
