NZD/USD Forecast Apr. 17-21
The New Zealand dollar hugged the 0.70 level once again. Will it choose a direction after Easter? Quarterly inflation figures stand out. Here is an analysis of fundamentals and an updated technical analysis for NZD/USD. The Business NZ Manufacturing Index advanced to 57.8 points, but the FPI slipped. All in all, data from New Zealand was quite […]
Bombs Away
All Domestic equity markets closed with weekly losses. The S&P 500 closed under its 50-day moving average, and down -1.22%, right on its lows for the week. it’s the lowest close since mid-February. The deterioration of the Trump bump trade is palpable. Consider this cause and effect as Trump is distancing himself from key political […]
Chinese Exports Surge Most In 2 Years But Goldman Warns It Won’t Continue
Amid all the chaos of lunar new year adjustments, Chinese exports in March surged 16.4% YoY (-1.3% YoY in Feb) – the biggest jump since Feb 2015. Import growth fell back from February’s surge (but surprised to the upside). Furthermore, China’s trade surplus with the United States, another bone of contention for Trump, widened in March from […]
Australian Dollar: Set To Suffer If ‘Risk-Off’ Theme Returns
Fundamental Forecast for the Australian Dollar: Bearish The Australian Dollar has benefited from strong labor-market data and a jump in imports by China. However, it will suffer if and when ‘risk-off’ sentiment returns. See the DailyFX Economic Calendar and see what live coverage of key event risk impacting FX markets is scheduled for the week on the DailyFX Webinar Calendar. The […]
China’s Tetralemma
Many countries have three policy objectives: (1) being able to set their own monetary policy, in order to keep their own inflation and unemployment at desired levels; (2) having a stable exchange rate, in order to avoid disruptive shifts in exports or imports; and (3) allowing free capital flows, in order to help the country’s […]
Biotech Sector Leads Market Early In 2017 Despite Uncertainties
Biotech Sector Leads Market Despite Slowing Trump Pro-Growth Agenda Biotech Themes and Clinical News Still Motivate Investors Drug Price Growth Expected to Slow in Coming Years Despite recent weakness over the past month the biotech sector has continued to outperform the market. This may surprise you because of all the focus since the election on […]
Weighing The Week Ahead: How Should Investors Cope With Geopolitical Risk?
Last week I suggested that the market might be ready for some real news—corporate earnings. That is still a key topic, but attention is focused on world events. Pundits will be asking: How Should Investors Respond to Geopolitical Risks? Last Week Last week the economic news was good, but mostly ignored. Theme Recap In my […]
An Important Breakout And Vindication For Silver Speculators
Last week, I noted that silver speculators returned to “maximum bullishness” but warned… “Just like the plunge on March 2nd, the key for SLV is the follow-through. On March 3rd, a small relief rally fell short of 200DMA resistance; two days later SLV gapped down on its way to a 50DMA breakdown. I am guessing […]
Fate Of Turkey’s Stock Market Is In The Hands Of An Algo Named “The Dude”
I mean, didn’t you notice on the plane when you started talking, eventually I started reading the vomit bag? Didn’t that give you some sort of clue, like hey, maybe this guy is not enjoying it? You know, everything is not an anecdote. You have to discriminate. You choose things that, that are funny or […]
The Vanguard High Dividend Yield ETF Is Looking Like A Buy Again
Just when the Fed zigged, the treasury yield curve zagged. The widely expected March interest rate hike was supposed to help push fixed income yields higher too but then the opposite happened. Treasuries rallied on the news and the yields ended up dropping. So what happened? My take is that the market got a little […]
