That’s Not Low Volatility, This Is Low Volatility…

That’s Not Low Volatility, This Is Low Volatility…

I was chatting with an acquaintance the other day about the resilience of credit in the face of multiple political land mines that, under normal circumstances, would have caused spreads on IG and HY to widen materially. [What? Isn’t that something you talk to your friends about?] We both agreed that while suppressed equity vol. […]
Even The “Experts” Get It Wrong Occasionally

Even The “Experts” Get It Wrong Occasionally

A friend was lamenting about the difficulty he was having getting “look through” information on closed end funds and ETFs, specifically bond funds, and calling into his online brokerage firm for help didn’t yield much better results. Closed end funds not necessarily being transparent isn’t news and while I am surprised he had the same […]
Pitchforks Coming For Central Bankers

Pitchforks Coming For Central Bankers

As central banks have pumped trillions of QE liquidity into the financial system since 2008, money supply (green) increased along with household debt (in red), but economic output (green) has maintained its downward trend along with wages and salaries (black). This is a big problem, because credit bubbles have always burst–every one (see chart below)–evaporating […]
Rail Week Ending 08 July 2017: Slowing Continues

Rail Week Ending 08 July 2017: Slowing Continues

Week 27 of 2017 shows same week total rail traffic (from same week one year ago) improved according to the Association of American Railroads (AAR) traffic data. The economically intuitive sectors slowing continues. Analyst Opinion of the Rail Data We review this data set to understand the economy. If coal and grain are removed from the analysis, rail over […]
Barclays Says Sell Seagate With Cost Cutting Near Conclusion

Barclays Says Sell Seagate With Cost Cutting Near Conclusion

Barclays downgraded Seagate (STX) to Underweight, its equivalent of a sell rating, from Equal Weight. The company’s cost cutting initiatives have largely come to an end, while it is losing share to its rival, Western Digital (WDC), in the high margin hard disk drive market, Barclays believes. Furthermore, Western Digital looks increasingly like it could […]
Better Dividend Aristocrat: Johnson & Johnson Or Medtronic?

Better Dividend Aristocrat: Johnson & Johnson Or Medtronic?

For investors looking for high-quality dividend stocks, the Dividend Aristocrats is a great place to begin your research. The Dividend Aristocrats Excel spreadsheet has 51 stocks with 25+ consecutive years of dividend increases. Health care giants Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) and Medtronic (MDT) are both on the list. J&J is a member of an even more exclusive […]
Regrettable Eateries

Regrettable Eateries

Although I cover my retail stocks early this morning (M, JWN, DDS) I am still cheerfully short a different kind of “retail”, which are casual dining establishments (AKA places I would never, ever want to eat). Here they are……….Fiesta Restaurant Group: Brinker International……….  And, home of the Grand Slam, Denny’s……….. 
The Logic Of A Modern Gold Standard

The Logic Of A Modern Gold Standard

In last week’s Insight, I analyzed the current geopolitical situation and concluded that it was now in the interest of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation to break from the US dollar completely, by establishing a new monetary and banking system. By linking the yuan and rouble to gold, the SCO’s principal currencies would be insulated from manipulation […]
Despite Yellen’s “Uncertainty”, VIX Crushed Back To A 9 Handle

Despite Yellen’s “Uncertainty”, VIX Crushed Back To A 9 Handle

US equity markets are ramping higher (aside from Small Caps) this morning as it appears the word “uncertain” – uttered ubiquitously by Fed Chair Yellen in the last two days – has a different meaning in stock-land… VIX hammered to a 9-handle, sending stocks soaring… Oh, and decliners are outpacing advancers…    Headlines: Everything is […]
USD/JPY Rally Vulnerable Ahead Of U.S. CPI/Retail Sales

USD/JPY Rally Vulnerable Ahead Of U.S. CPI/Retail Sales

USD/JPY Daily   Technical Outlook: USD/JPY responded to a key resistance range this week at 114.37/60. The pair is loaded with technical considerations into the 115-handle which include the 100% extension of the April rally, the 61.8% retracement of the 2017 range and the May high. The pullback is in focus with the broader outlook weighted to the […]