Setting A Target
As I wrote recently in Next Level to Break, “It’s as simple as this: 2331.75. Break that, and close below it, and the bulls are screwed.” Well, mission accomplished. So what’s next? Allow me to offer a projection: 2266.25 on the ES before a meaningful bounce. This lines up nicely with the prospect of another […]
Treasury Releases FX Manipulation Report: Says China Must Allow Yuan To “Rise With Market Forces”
While Donald Trump already spoiled the surprise of the contents of the latest semiannual report from the Treasury on currency manipulation, when on Wednesday he told the WSJ that China would not be named a currency manipulator, moments ago the US Treasury confirmed just that when it published the long awaited report on “Foreign Exchange […]
Supply Crunch Or Oil Glut: Investment Banks Can’t Agree
In recent years, U.S. shale has thrown in another unknown in the mix of factors driving the price of oil. This year, shale output forecasts combine with OPEC’s production cuts, geopolitical factors, and unexpected outages to further complicate supply/demand and oil price forecasts by Wall Street’s major investment banks. The biggest banks remain bullish on […]
Is The Business Cycle Peaking?
Last week, Danske Bank, a leading bank in Denmark, openly started to comment on what would be disastrous for the world economy. After seeing and analyzing a fresh batch of macro-economic data, Danske Bank now thinks there are an increasing amount of signs the global business cycle is peaking as the US car sales and […]
Economic Data Calls For 4/17/17
Here’s what we are looking for in Monday’s economic reports (Apr 17, 2017) — Good Luck Trading! 1. CH Retail Sales, Industrial Production and GDP (22:00 NY Time) No Trade — Chinese data is extremely volatile and difficult to predict but will be market moving 2. Empire Manufacturing (8:30 NY Time) No Trade — First […]
Look Out Below: “Godzilla Returns Next Week”
First a couple of weeks ago, and most recently a couple of days ago in “Who’s Behind The Treasury Rally?,” we noted that while there are surely multiple factors at play including the unwind of the spec 10Y short… …and general concerns about the viability of the reflation narrative… …one possible tailwind for Treasurys is […]
How Heavy Is This?
Here is a glass of water. You’re holding it. How heavy is it? The answer is: the actual weight probably doesn’t matter. It’s just a glass of water. What matters is how long you hold it. Hold it for a minute, it’s no problem. An hour and your arm will ache. A day and your arm will […]
This Week In Review: How Trump’s Policies Moved Stocks
Catch up on the top industries and stocks that were impacted, or were predicted to be impacted, by the comments, actions and policies of President Trump and his administration with this weekly recap compiled by The Fly. 1. CEO MEETING: On Tuesday, President Donald Trump met with about 20 chief executives, including the heads of […]
GDP Forecasts Dip Again: Forecasts Compared
In the wake of dismal retail sales, first-quarter GDP forecasts by the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model and the FRBNY Nowcast model ticked lower. Let’s investigate the details and compare the current estimates. Nowcast Latest Forecast: 2.6 Percent — April 14, 2017 The FRBNY Staff Nowcast stands at 2.6% for 2017:Q1 and 2.1% for 2017:Q2. Incoming […]
Forex Weekly Outlook April 17 – 21
Kuroda speaks, US Crude Oil Inventories, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, Unemployment Claims and inflation data from New Zealand…these are the main events for this week. Join us as we explore the market-movers coming our way. Last week US data was mixed showing favorable consumer sentiment with disappointing inflation and retail sales figures. The University of […]
