Rich Dad’s Demographic Crash Thesis Vs. Mish’s “Pain Trade” Thesis
Author and real estate mogul Robert Kiyosaki, better known as “Rich Dad“, is predicting a stock market crash starting in 2016. Unlike others who perpetually predict crashes, Kiyosaki made his crash claim in his 2002 book “Rich Dad’s Prophecy”. Kiyosaki’s most recent prediction is based on demographics. He now says we are “right on schedule” […]
The World Has 6 Options To Avoid Japan’s Fate, And According To HSBC, They Are All Very Depressing
Last week, when looking back at consensus economist forecasts for Japanese growth as of 1995, we compared what the pundits thought would happen, and what actually did happen: the result was what may have been the worst forecast of all time, leading to a 25% error rate in just five years later. It also unleashed the start of Japan’s three […]
The ECB’s March Announcements: Some Facts And Some Philosophy
On March 10, the European Central Bank announced an eagerly awaited new round of stimulus measures. This fell flat, and it has left some people wondering whether the bazookas of the central banks have become pop guns. As Andrew Bosomworth put it, in PIMCO’s blog, the ECB ”ticked all the boxes”: targeted long-term refinancing operations (TLTROs); rate […]
Will Gold’s Multi-Year Down Trend Resume In Q2?
Gold embarked on an aggressive recovery in the first quarter of 2016, buoyed by a slump in Federal Reserve rate hike expectations. A dovish shift in investors’ policy bets reduces the opportunity cost to owning gold versus interest-bearing assets while boosting demand for alternative stores of value to hedge against increased inflation risk. Prices traded […]
Insider Weekends-March 27, 2016
Insider buying decreased significantly last week with insiders buying $38.86 million of stock compared to $269.24 million in the week prior. Selling also decreased significantly with insiders selling $635.25 million of stock last week compared to $1.33 billion in the week prior. This muted activity is not unusual as we approach the end of the quarter and most companies […]
Country ETF Update
The theme for Single Country ETFs over the last month is either countries that produce a lot of natural resources (commodities) or countries in which sane people don’t invest. Okay, maybe sanity isn’t the proper metric but surely investors who can’t afford to take a loss shouldn’t be investing in Russia, Peru or Turkey, all […]
How Big Is The “Gig” Economy? What About “Permatemps”?
I just looked up the term “gig”. Merriam-Webster provides 4 definitions: “Something whirled, someone of grotesque appearance, a rowboat, and a two-wheeled one-horse carriage”. Clearly that’s not what we are talking about. Even the Urban Dictionary is behind the times with its description “A live performance, either musical, theatrical, or physical.” Curiously, the Urban Dictionary managed to misspell […]
How We Knew Valeant Pharmaceuticals Would Blow Up
In this video we explain how we researched Valeant Pharmaceuticals before its big earnings dive. Valeant Pharmaceuticals PDF here, video below of the details behind our research that led us to publish multiple warnings on Valeant Pharmaceuticals (VRX) stock, which dropped 50% on March 15. (The following was published on March 15) Valeant Pharmaceuticals (VRX: $36/share) […]
Forex Forecast: Pairs In Focus March 27, 2016
The difference between success and failure in Forex trading is very likely to depend upon which currency pairs you choose to trade each week, and not on the exact trading methods you might use to determine trade entries and exits. Each week I am going to analyze fundamentals, sentiment and technical positions in order to […]
Hugh Hendry: “If China Devalues By 20% The World Is Over, Everything Hits A Wall”
Once upon a time Hugh Hendry was one of the world’s most prominent financial skeptics, arguing with anyone who would listen that the status quo is doomed and that central planning will never work. Most famously, back in 2010 during a BBC round table discussion with Jeffrey Sachs and Gillian Tett when discussing Europe’s crashing experiment with […]
