Presenting The Complete Global Currency Swirlogram
In case you missed it, DM central banks are locked in a truly epic FX deathmatch. Sluggish growth and trade and the attendant global deflationary supply glut have left the world stuck in a nauseating, perpetual hangover from the financial crisis. Subpar inflation and disappointing growth have become the norm in developed markets and that’s lured […]
Safe Blue Chip Stocks With Growing Dividends
The S&P 500 has clawed its way back to even for the year, but investors should be cautious as the market still faces three major hurdles to overcome before an extended rally can occur. I started the New Year with a non-sanguine view of the market. With this outlook, my portfolio had a 30% allocation […]
Buffett Will Win Vs. AIG
AIG Ordered to Pay $9.5 Million On March 14, 2016, three affiliates of American International Group (NYSE:AIG) were fined $9.5 million by the SEC for reportedly engaging in reverse-churning and steering investors of retirement products into costly mutual funds with wrap fees. The wrap fees are higher fees that normally apply to higher volume traders, but the […]
E W&T Offshore – This Is What A Revolver Cut Looks Like
The rout in oil prices has claimed several victims. Through mid-December there were 41 oil & gas bankruptcies. In some instances the death knell for drillers is not complete until bankers pull the plug. That process might have started after bankers cut W&T Offshore’s (WTI) revolver from $350 million to $150 million: W&T Offshore, Inc. announced […]
Meme Reversion
500 and Counting I’m now about 500 posts and a million words into the back-to-front world of financial psychology and you might think I’d have learned something useful by now. Well, it turns out there are only a couple of things you need to bear in mind: that mean reversion is the only certain thing […]
Pre-1965 Silver Pocket Change Provides Investors With An Economic Future
Among all the choices you have for gold and silver bullion, genuinely historic metal is still around at reasonable prices. The runaway classic is ninety-percent U.S. silver coinage. The lyrical ring of a handful of silver coins speaks not only to the history of the United States but also the entire heritage of sound money. […]
Gold Stocks’ Spring Rally
The red-hot gold stocks have spent most of March in consolidation mode, grinding sideways near their 2016 highs. Interestingly this month’s rally pause is par for the course seasonally in gold-stock bull markets. Like gold itself, this sector tends to slump to a seasonal low in mid-March before embarking on a strong spring rally in […]
SPX & Oil At Critical Juncture
The SPX at the 2050 level looks like a great place for a ‘pullback’ to begin as indicated in the chart below. There is a potential “distribution topping phase” in which the SPX may pull back to 2000. I see a potential target at 1890. The price has made a series of lower swing highs and lower swing […]
4th Quarter “Final” GDP Estimate 1.4% – Expect Revisions
Today the BEA released its third estimate of 4th Quarter 2015 GDP. Fourth quarter GDP purportedly increased from 1.0% in the second estimate to 1.4% in the third. The BEA used to label the three estimates as advance, preliminary, and final. Now it’s just 1-2-3. That was a good move because there is nothing final about […]
Bad — But Better Than What’s Coming
Talk about diminished expectations. This morning’s estimate of 1.4% Q4 GDP growth is being hailed as a pleasant surprise. Which is odd, considering that for most of the past century a number this low would have been seen as weak enough to require emergency action. And that’s just the headline number. Dig a little deeper […]
