The FTSE 100 Rises On A Dovish Fed

The FTSE 100 Rises On A Dovish Fed

The FTSE 100 (FXCM: UK100) is slightly higher today in line with European indexes. The motivation for the latest rise is yesterday’s dovish message by the Fed. A key change was the reduction of the Fed implied rate by the end of the year, now signaling two rate hikes from four in December. This has […]
Bring On The Clowns

Bring On The Clowns

If we are not seeing a case of deliberate attempts to break the back of their own currencies among these Central Bankers, then “Scotty, beam me up!” With the Fed Fund futures showing sharp increases AHEAD of the FOMC statement of rate hike probabilities, yesterday’s ultra dovish statement had everyone positioned on the wrong side […]
World’s Second Largest Reinsurer Buys Gold, Hoards Cash To Counter Negative Interest Rates

World’s Second Largest Reinsurer Buys Gold, Hoards Cash To Counter Negative Interest Rates

The world’s second-largest reinsurer, German Munich Re which is roughly twice the size of Berkshire Hathaway Re, is boosting its gold reserves and buying gold in the face of the punishing negative interest rates from the European Central Bank. As caught by Mark O’Byrne at GoldCore and reported by Thomson Reuters this afternoon, the world’s largest reinsurer is far from […]
38% Of Companies To Reduce Employment In 2016, Only 29% Expect Increase: Five Consequences

38% Of Companies To Reduce Employment In 2016, Only 29% Expect Increase: Five Consequences

Is the part-time hiring binge that has inflated job numbers for at least two years about to come to an end? I think so. More importantly, so do CEOs of large corporations. In December, a quarterly survey of large corporation CEOs showed a minuscule net of 1% (35% to 34%)of corporations expected an increase in […]
The Origins Of Both Endogenous Money And The Industrial Revolution

The Origins Of Both Endogenous Money And The Industrial Revolution

Written by Philip Pilkington The latest issue of the Review of Keynesian Economics (ROKE) is out and it looks like this publication is taking off fast. It includes, among other things, an introduction by the president of the Argentinian central bank (which is available free online) and a book review by me (which is not). […]
Today’s Trade: The Market’s Fight Song

Today’s Trade: The Market’s Fight Song

Technical Outlook: Extremely dovish and extremely unexpected FOMC Statement yesterday that cut the yearly outlook of 4 additional rate hikes down to 2 additional rate hikes.  As a result, Yellen, by cutting the number of rates for the year, essentially gave the market the equivalent of two rate cuts yesterday.  Be careful today, because a […]
S&P 500 And Nasdaq 100 Forecast – March 17, 2016

S&P 500 And Nasdaq 100 Forecast – March 17, 2016

S&P 500 The S&P 500 initially fell during the day on Wednesday, but with the Federal Reserve suggesting that there are going to be less interest-rate hikes than originally anticipated, the markets got moving yet again. The market looks as if it is ready to go higher but there’s a lot of noise between here […]
US Business Cycle Risk Report – 17 March 2016

US Business Cycle Risk Report – 17 March 2016

Recent economic reports suggest that the US economy will continue to grow at a modest pace. Although macro risk has increased in recent months, the probability is low that a recession started last month and the near-term outlook suggests that the economy will continue to sidestep a new downturn, based on current data. The bigger […]
Great Graphic: Dollar Index Retracement, Too Soon To Say Top Is In

Great Graphic: Dollar Index Retracement, Too Soon To Say Top Is In

The cry that the dollar has peaked is gaining ground.  We are not convinced.  The macro-fundamental case remains intact.  Divergence between the US and other high income countries continues, even if at a more gradual pace than the Federal Reserve expected a few months ago.  This Great Graphic of the Dollar Index, created on Bloomberg, shows that shows […]
DAX Bullish On Draghi Bazooka

DAX Bullish On Draghi Bazooka

  The year of 2016 has not been kind to German stocks as evidenced by the weak performance from the DAX during the first quarter. Since the beginning of the year, the DAX 30 index has fallen -7.57%, and the one-year performance has been notably worse. Recent monetary policy actions might benefit the benchmark equity index […]