November 2014 Chart Review
In our monthly ETF chart roundup video, we take the temperature of the market in relation to its long-term trend lines. In addition, we profile several key international, commodity, and bond ETFs that are showing signs of opportunity and risk. The important themes to watch this month are large cap stocks, Europe, high yield bonds, […]
21 November 2014: ECRI’s WLI Improves Marginally But Remains In Contraction
ECRI’s WLI Growth Index improved marginally but has been in negative territory for 6 weeks. This index is forecasting a slight business cycle contraction in 1Q2015. Obviously the markets do not share ECRI’s view the business cycle is taking a downturn. Current ECRI WLI Level and Growth Index Here is this weeks update on ECRI’s […]
Despite Higher GDP, U.S. Economic Data Continues To Disappoint
U.S. Economic Data Continues to Disappoint. Audio Length: 00:28:19
The Vendetta Continues: Ackman’s Latest Herbalife Deathwish And Other Observations – The Full Q3 Letter
For those who care what Bill Ackman has been thinking and doing lately, aside from colluding with and piggybacking on desperate for M&A “strategics” to go activist, and buying a boatload of calls in advance of announcing a material, market-moving position and in the process generating a 43.4% YTD return while the SEC sits on its hands. […]
How Do You Make Financial Decisions: With Emotion Or Logic?
Logical decision making is a crucial part of investing. But many investors often find themselves driven by emotion rather than logic. For example, the fear of losing, known as “loss aversion,” may tie an investor’s hands and lead him to make poor investment choices. And what about the “disposition effect,” where investors mistakenly hold onto […]
EC Irrational Exuberance – Descriptive Superlatives’ Exhaustion Point Is Reached
Positioning Indicators at New Extremes We are updating our suite of sentiment data again, mainly because it is so fascinating that a historically rarely seen bullish consensus has emerged – after a rally that has taken the SPX up by slightly over 210% from its low. Admittedly, a slew of such records has occurred in the course […]
No Portfolio Changes This Week
Our core market health indicators are mostly improving this week, but at a very slow pace. None of them have improved enough to change any of our portfolio allocations. It isn’t likely that conditions will change by Friday, but I’ll make a post if they do. One positive sign is the NYSE cumulative Advance / Decline […]
October 2014 Pending Home Sales Index Declines But Continues To Show Improving Home Sales
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) seasonally adjusted pending home sales index declined marginally – but remains in expansion for the second month after a year in contraction. Our analysis of pending home sales however suggests that November 2014 existing home sales will be better than October’s. Pending home sales are based on contract signings, and existing […]
Shift Happens
Back on November 10th, I did my Shifting Sands post, which predicted that oil would, as gold and silver did before it, fall to pieces. I’ve marked the point of my post on the chart below with an arrow. Well, so far, so good, in spite of the Saudis trying to prop things up. I think oil has […]
US “Secret” Deal With Saudis Backfires After Oil Minister Says US Should Cut First
Who could have seen this coming? With oil prices holding at 4-year lows, heavily pressuring around half of US shale production economics, the “secret” US deal (see here and here) with Saudi Arabia to crush Russia via oil over-supply in a slumping demand world appears to be backfiring rapidly for John Kerry and his strategy team. […]
