Great Graphic: 10-Year Break-Evens And Oil
Until last September, the Federal Reserve seems to play down the market-based measures of inflation expectations, preferring the surveys that showed views were anchored. At the September 2015 FOMC meeting where the Fed had been expected to tighten until the August turmoil, officials cited among other considerations, the decline in market-based measures of inflation expectations. […]
Transports- Red Hot Of Late, Making Breakout Attempt
Starting almost a year ago, Transportation stocks started falling harder than the broad markets. (See table directly below). As you can see in the table above, the Transportation Index ETF (IYT) was much weaker than the broad markets from 3/23/15 until 1/20/16, falling in price almost three times as much as the S&P over this time frame. […]
Lower Price Akbar
Over the past week, the ES seems to play this little game with the four bears left living on the planet (yours truly representing 25% of this bold contingent): it would drop a modest but enticing amount pre-open, like 5 or 8 points, providing much-needed hope. Then, quarter-point by quarter-point, it would simply reverse, and […]
Safe Havens Sought As Fear Drives Sentiment
The flight to safety in the wake of the terrorist act in Belgium sent the Swiss Franc and Japanese Yen soaring earlier today. Analysts say that at least until some positive economic news alters market sentiment investors are likely to see fear continue on as the market’s main driver. In a quiet reporting day, markets […]
Morning Call For March 22, 2016
OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS Jun E-mini S&Ps (ESM16 -0.33%) are down -0.40% and European stocks are down -0.65% after at least 28 people were killed in bombing attacks in Brussels’ airport and a Maelbeek metro station. Losses in travel-related stocks are leading the overall markets lower with Carnival Corp., American Airlines, Expedia and Priceline Group […]
WTI Crude Oil And Natural Gas Forecast – March 22, 2016
WTI Crude Oil The WTI Crude Oil market had a very positive session on Monday, gaining over 5%. We are just below the $42 level, and now it appears that the market is completely ignoring the supply and demand equation, and is only paying attention to the potential drilling freeze. However, the biggest problem that […]
Housing Crash?: U.S. Existing Home Sales Fall By The Most In Six Years
We just got more evidence that a major economic slowdown is underway here in the United States. Existing home sales were down a whopping 7.1 percent during the month of February, and this represented the biggest decline that we have seen in six years. This is yet another sign that we are in the early stages of a […]
Monthly Macro With Mish Shedlock
Mish Shedlock lays out some of the Key Macro Messages in his extensive writings over the last month. US Economy: Concerning Signals Concerns with what Industrial Production, Consumer Spending and Inventories to Sales are telling us, FOMC Meeting signals fewer and slower number of rate increases, The End of the Obamacare Lift for Employment, US Primaries […]
Today’s Trading Plan: Digesting Terrorism
Technical Outlook: SPX managed to bounce once again off of the 5-day moving average for a fifth straight day. The theme in the market of late is not how much it is going up each day but how much it manages to recover off of the lows of the day. SPY volume marked the lowest […]
Is The U.S. Stock Market At A Crossroads?
The S&P 500 has been rallying in recent weeks, recovering all of the ground it lost in January and February. The sharp rebound has been impressive, inspiring optimists to claim that the old bull market has been revived and upside momentum is once again in the driver’s seat. Perhaps, but the true test awaits. Hanging […]
