Is Up Down Or Down Up?
Too often I disagree with the RESULTS of the methodology used to analyze data releases. There is no methodology which is perfect – and for this reason I believe the less you screw with the raw data – the more consistent the results for baselining, comparing, and trending. This week there was one confusing […]
Even The Bulls Are Expecting A Pullback
During the summer of 2011, as gold was in the heart of a parabolic rise, the market was quite certain that we would imminently exceed the $2,000 mark. However, we expected it to top just over $1,900 and did not believe we would exceed $2,000, as the market was simply too euphoric at the time. […]
Robo Investing – The Latest And The Greatest
The Craze Sweeping the Nation – Robo Investing Recently all we hear about is “Robo Investing”. The themes vary between companies and sites offering the service, but in essence most sites – including the big banks – ask you to fill in the standard type forms that you would at any brokerage to open an […]
Yuan Outlook Bearish For Post-NPC Week
Fundamental Forecast for the Yuan: Bearish Tax Cuts, Financial Reforms Unleashed in the Yearly Plan Gov’t Spending Data Hints at Proactive Fiscal Policy What Are the Traits of Successful Traders? Get FXCM’s Free New eGuide The Chinese Yuan pulled higher both on onshore (CNY) and offshore markets (CNH) against the greenback following the more dovish-than-expected comments […]
International Economic Week In Review: Is The EU Stronger Than We Think?
This week confirmed the central thesis of Lael Brainard’s February 26th speech, “What Happened to the Great Divergence,” where she argued that all major central banks are now pursuing very similar policy paths due to weak global growth. Last week, the ECB amended their asset purchase program. This week the RBA and BOJ kept rates steady while […]
When A Quarter Is Two Halves
The year started off poorly, to say the least. Equity markets plunged from the get-go. The Nikkei, DAX and S&P 500 gapped lower on the first trading day of the year. Emerging markets and commodities were smashed. Many economists blamed the Federal Reserve for hiking rates in mid-December. Pundits warned that the seven-year bull market and […]
Three Things I Think I Think – Weekend Edition – 3/20/2016
Here are some things I think I am thinking about over the weekend – negative rates, lost manufacturing jobs and debt fallacies of composition. Where did my life go so wrong that I spend my weekends thinking about these things? Perhaps a post for another day…. 1 – Shorter Ben Bernanke on Negative Rates – […]
Goldman Throws Up On Global Easing Party, Warns US Economy Close To Overheating
“The dollar rally is far from over,” Goldman’s Robin Brooks said, just hours before this week’s FOMC announcement. “We expect the Fed to signal that it wants to continue normalizing policy, which means three hikes this year and four in 2017,” Brooks continued. “Overall, our sense is that the outcome will be more hawkish than market pricing.” Yes, “a […]
Ride The Dow Bull With These ETFs
After a scary start to the year, the Dow Jones Industrial Average made an impressive comeback over the past one month. The index, which had fallen 11.3% in the first three weeks of 2016, has recouped all its losses and is now up more than 1% since the start of the year. Inside the Recent […]
US Equity And Economic Review: We Continue To Grind Slower
The latest LEIs and CEIs showed continued weakness. Half the leading indicators declined. The manufacturing slowdown was evident, with the ISM new orders number negative for the last 6 months and manufacturers new orders down in 3 of the last 6 months.In contrast, 3/4 of the coincident indicators rose.However, the pace of increases for both […]
