Market Talk – March 16, 2016
With both Asia and European markets were in pretty much a waiting station ahead of the FED, so it is probably worth us heading straight to where the action started! Even the events of the UK Budget were almost removed with talks of, “It could all change come June 23rd anyway” so why get too hot under […]
S&P 500 Snapshot: The Fed Tempest In A Teapot… A Modest Gain On Low Volume
The pre-FOMC trade this week has been, in our characterization, in the doldrums, as illustrated by the fractional losses on Monday and Tuesday and the two narrowest intraday trading ranges of 2016. Today’s market action saw a typical 2 PM mini-drama with the release of the statement followed by Janet Yellen’s press conference. It was […]
The Monetary Base, Buybacks And The Stock Market
A Useful Leading Indicator? We often see charts comparing the S&P 500 to the growth in the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet, or more specifically, to assets held by the Fed. There is undeniably a close correlation between the two, but it has struck us as not very useful as a “timing device”, or an early […]
Gold, Stocks, & Bonds Soar As “Cowardly Lyin'” Fed Batters Banks & Greenback
Watching the markets’ reaction and listening to Yellen’s incomprehensible drivel brought to mind two Gladiator clips… Pre-Fed… and Post-Fed… So let’s survey the ‘damage’… Rate hike odds plunged… And the market turmoiled all over the place… But Gold was the post-Fed winner… Trannies were best on the day… (not the pump and dump between statement […]
Fed Says Two Hikes, Down From Four; Market Says One
Following today’s FOMC announcement in which the Fed scaled back its rate hike projections from four to two, the market scaled back its assessments even more according to CME Fedwatch analysis of Fed Fund Futures. Let’s compare rate hike odds on March 14 to today to see how the odds shifted. June 15 Meeting Odds on March […]
SP 500 And NDX Futures Daily Charts – There Goes The Recovery™ Again, Receding Into The Future
“Victorians, Victorians, who never learned to weep. Who sowed the bitter harvest that your children go to reap.” F. Scott Fitzgerald, This Side of Paradise Ah, the vagaries of empire, and the New American Century. O brave new world, that has such wieners in it. The Fed had to ask for ‘a mulligan’ on its forecasts […]
‘Inflation Trade’ Watch
So FOMC rolls over on Uncle Buck, secure in the knowledge that it is playing with the house’s money for now. USD could drop a long way before anyone would get overly concerned about it. So in standing down, they have managed to play their own game of global Whack-a-Mole with the currency while continuing […]
Three Trends For The Next 50 Years
I’m not a big believer in the future. I mean, it will exist—we know that. But that’s about it. CXO Advisory Group has analyzed the predictions of hundreds of pundits. Are the talking heads on TV right or wrong? You know, the ones who say Ebola will end the world, or the ones who said […]
The Big Four Economic Indicators: February Industrial Production Remains In Recession
Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which they base their decisions. This committee statement is about as close as they get to identifying their method. There is, however, a general belief that there are four big indicators that the committee weighs […]
Occidental Petroleum: Liquidity Scenario Analysis
Analysis Overview – Even with $35 per barrel oil assumption for 2016, Occidental Petroleum (NYSE: OXY) is positioned to pay dividends, reduce debt and maintain a healthy year end 2016 liquidity profile. The largest player in the Permian Basin is attractive for long-term and is likely to maintain S&P credit rating of “A” over the next 12-24 […]
