Before The FOMC, Another Look At The ECB’s Actions
The market’s focus has shifted to the two-day FOMC meeting that begins today. The Federal Reserve should be pleased with recent developments. Labor market slack continues to be absorbed. Core inflation measures continue to edge higher. Market-based measures of inflation expectations have risen,and the 10-year breakeven is a little above levels that prevailed before the December FOMC meeting. The […]
Retail Sales: February Sales Show Renewed Weakness
The Census Bureau’s Advance Retail Sales Report released this morning shows that seasonally adjusted sales in February contracted month-over-month and the previous month was revised downward. Headline sales decreased 0.1% MoM, which was less then the -0.2% Investing.com forecast, but January was revised downward rather dramatically from 0.2% to -0.4%. Headline sales are up 3.4% year-over-year. Core […]
February 2016 Producer Prices Year-Over-Year Inflation Is Now Zero
The Producer Price Index year-over-year inflation is zero. The intermediate processing continues to show a large deflation in the supply chain – but the amount of deflation decreased. The PPI represents inflation pressure (or lack thereof) that migrates into consumer price. The BLS reported that the headline Producer Price Index (PPI) finished goods prices (now called final […]
The Four Blind Mice At The Cliff
“They Keynesian economists urge adoption of a “managed currency” and various forms of government intervention in the economic life of its fellow citizens. The idea is that government should supply an economic wisdom that private enterprise lacks or is unable to use. But even these economists see the uneconomic results of the government intervention which […]
S&P 500 And Nasdaq 100 Forecast For March 15, 2016
S&P 500 The S&P 500 went back and forth during the day on Monday as the 2020 level seems to be a bit of a magnet for price. Because of this, I think that we may have a fight on our hands above, and of course the previous noise that we had seen in this […]
This Chart Shows The First Big Crash Is Likely Just Ahead
The story on Wall Street and CNBC continues to be that we’re in a correction and this is a buying opportunity. Even Warren Buffett joins the chorus of stock market cheerleaders for the skeptical public. Well, I agree with the skeptical public, not the experts here! The bull market from early 2009 into May 2015 looks […]
Testy Tuesday – S&P 2,000 & Nikkei 17,000 Yet Again
Unchanged! That was the monetary indecision by the Bank of Japan early this morning and the Dow Futures(/YM) are down 130 points from their high (now 17,183) and the S&P Futures (/ES) are down 15 points (1,999) with the Nasdaq (/NQ) down 26 points (4,344), Russell (/TF) 1,070 and the Nikkei (/NKD) is at 16,935. Essentially, we’re still at the same lines we’ve been looking to short since […]
Crude’s Fallen Arches
Good morning, everyone,. I’m pleased to be back in Palo Alto and surrounded by my monitors again. I’m particularly delighted to see so much red on the screen, even though, based on last Friday’s knitting-needles-through-eyeballs insanity, I’m waiting for the proverbial other shoe to drop (or shall I say other shoe to float up in […]
E Best & Worst Large Caps To Buy – March 15, 2016
The best large cap sectors are utilities and industrials. The highest scoring large cap industry is semi equipment & materials. The average large cap score is 62.21 and that’s above the four week moving average score of 60.23. The average large cap stock in our coverage is trading -20.9% below its 52 week high, 0.42% […]
Death Crosses Are Often Golden And Golden Crosses Are Often Deathly
A “death cross” is when the 50-day moving average (MA) goes from above to below the 200-day MA. According to conventional wisdom death crosses are bearish, but they often occur near short-term price lows and therefore tend to be bullish. For example, over the past 5 years the S&P 500 Index (SPX) has experienced three […]
