Two Trade Anomalies
It is widely recognized that the sharp depreciation of the Japanese yen has not lifted Japanese export volumes. In December 2015, Japanese export volumes had fallen 4.4% year-over-year after rising 3.9% in December 2014 and 2.5% in December 2013. These are a number of explanations for this counter-intuitive result given the yen’s past depreciation. First, global demand is weak. Second, has […]
February 2016 Inflation Adjusted Personal Income And Consumption Growth Mixed
The data this month showed good income growth with spending growth weak (significant downward revision in last month’s expenditure data). Still year-over-year consumption is growing faster than income. The market looks at current values (not real inflation adjusted) and was expecting (from Bloomberg):. Consensus Range Consensus Actual Personal Income – M/M change -0.1 % […]
California Cruises Towards $15/Hr Minimum Wage: Expect Budget Deficits, Higher Taxes, Job Losses
California governor Jerry Brown has proposed a $15 minimum wage by 2022. If the legislation passes, it will wreak havoc on city budgets, state budgets, businesses, and jobs. Please consider California Moves Toward $15-an-Hour Minimum Wage. Gov. Jerry Brown’s administration has told leaders in the Democratic-controlled state Legislature he supports boosting the state’s minimum wage to […]
EC Big Four Economic Indicators: Real Personal Income For Feb.
Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which they base their decisions. This committee statement is about as close as they get to identifying their method. There is, however, a general belief that there are four big indicators that the committee […]
What Are The Chances Of A Rate Hike In April?
Image via Leo Newball, Jr. ‘California Federal Reserve Bank’ / Flickr The USD/CAD pair moved slightly on Friday, the European session setting the rate in the 1.3230 area. The main reason for this small fluctuation is that the Canadian markets were closed for Good Friday, being no Canadian news releases. From the US side, the […]
Starwood Says Anbang Group Made Revised Proposal For $82.75/share
Starwood Hotels (HOT) announced that its board, in consultation with its legal and financial advisors, determined that a revised, non-binding proposal from a consortium consisting of Anbang Insurance Group Co., Ltd., J.C. Flowers & Co. and Primavera Capital Limited is reasonably likely to lead to a “Superior Proposal” as defined in Starwood’s merger agreement with […]
These Are The Oil Producers That May (Or May Not) Attend Next Month’s “Farcical” OPEC Meeting
The one catalyst most responsible for sending the price of oil from its 13 year lows hit in early February some 50% higher in the following month, has been the recurring rumor about an “imminent” OPEC production freeze meeting which was initially supposed to take place in early March, then on March 20, and now […]
E Why I Love/Hate The Oil Companies
The first thing I do when I get up every morning is to curse the oil companies as blood sucking scourges of modern civilization. I then fall down on my knees and thank God that we have the oil companies. This is why petroleum engineers are getting $100,000 straight out of college, while English and […]
Weekly Forex Forecast – 3/28/16
EUR/JPY The EUR/JPY pair initially fell during the course of the week, but found enough support underneath the 125 level to turn things back around and form a hammer. The hammer of course is a very bullish sign, so I feel that this market is going to continue to grind higher during the course of […]
Meaningless Monday Market Movement
Most markets are closed today. For some reason, the US takes Good Friday off and not Monday, which is better, because then you get to come back to a short week, which feels like another vacation. Anyway, this is going to be a wild week as we have 5 scheduled Fed speakers and the Fed […]
