US Bond Market Week In Review: Is The Yield Curve Still A Valid Recession Predictor?
This week, I’ll be focusing exclusively on the treasury market’s performance. Let’s start with a slope of the overall yield curve: The 30-2 spread is currently 178, nowhere near inversion. The standard interpretation of this is that we’re nowhere near a recession. The 10-2 spread confirms that interpretation: The difference between the 10 and 2-year treasury is […]
New Trades In The Smart Alpha Equity Income Portfolio
Another three months, another refresh of the Smart Alpha Equity Income portfolio. There were plenty of trades, 19 out of 20 positions turned over. That’s par for the course and to be expected: The model reaches for yield as far as feasible without straying into the junk-income territory, and that requires that we not allow metrics that […]
Was This The Worst Economist Forecast Of All Time?
When it comes to predicting the future, there has traditionally been a stealthy contest between economists and weathermen as to who is the worst predictor of coming events. Lately, there was some confusion when economists – this includes central bankers and market “strategists” -tired of being humiliated in public for their terrible predictions, decided to become Monday Morning weathermen […]
International Economic Week In Review: A Good Friday Shortened Week
Add the Dallas Fed to the list of organizations arguing for weaker global growth.Their latest International Economic Update reported: Global growth is slowing (Chart 1). Fourth-quarter real gross domestic product (GDP) growth in emerging markets was below 4 percent, its lowest level since 2003, except for during the 2009 recession. Advanced foreign economies slowed as […]
On A Letter From An Expatriate
Photo Credit: Liz West A friend I haven’t heard from in many years since he left the USA wrote me. He closed the letter in an unusual way, saying: PS — USA has gone completely bonkers these days? or what the heck is going on over there? would love to pick your mind over a glass […]
Have Governments Always Spent More Than Taxes?
It might surprise many that governments have routinely spent more than they take in from taxes. In ancient times, governments simply minted more coins to fund their operations, they did not generally borrow. Some Greeks borrowed from the temples to fund wars and did default. However, typically, tax revenues amounted to only about 80% of expenditure. […]
Key Economic Data Out This Week
Not much financial news came in over the weekend with major holidays worldwide but economists look forward to the coming week for the release of several interesting economic reports which could help U.S. stocks resume their recent winning path. Reports on Friday showed the U.S. economic growth slowdown in the fourth quarter was not as […]
Buy – Royal Bank Of Canada
My recent buying trend has been insurance and banking stocks. Oops, I did it again. The trend continues because I bought Royal Bank of Canada (RY) stock. This purchase marks the 3rd Canadian bank stock I’ve added to my portfolio this year. Last week, I bought 25 Royal Bank of Canada shares at $57.65 a […]
Forex Ranking, Rating And Score For Week 13 / 27 March 2016
This is the article “Forex Ranking and Rating list” for the coming week, the article “Forex Strength and Comparison” has also been published this weekend. When looking at the Top 10 in the Weekly Ranking and Rating list we can see that for the coming week the following stronger currencies are well represented for going […]
Bullish USD/JPY Outlook Mired By Dovish Fed, Wait-and-See BoJ
See how retail traders are positioning in the majors using the FXCM SSI readings on DailyFX’s sentiment page. The diverging paths for monetary policy fosters a long-term bullish outlook for USD/JPY, but the Federal Reserve’s and the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) wait-and-see approach may continue to drag on the exchange rate especially as Janet Yellen and Co. […]
